15.09.2023

Week Two NFL Prop Report

Another exciting weekend of NFL football is upon us, and with it comes the opportunity to bet on more player props. With one game under everyone's belt and an entire week of overreactions to the results, teams, and players will be back out to prove people right or wrong come Sunday afternoon. Today, we’ll break down three player props across three games I’ve already locked in.

Pick One: Geno Smith Over 21.5 Completions (-120)

Seattle is one of those teams that a lot of people wanted to talk about and overreact to after their week one loss to the Rams. There is no denying the Seahawks' offense did not play well, but at the end of the day, none of their starters really played in the preseason, and they were taking on a healthy Rams defense. Now, with one game that we can think of as their preseason game that counted, Seattle is on the road to take on a Lions team that they scored over 90 combined points with when they played last year.

For my first play of the day, I’ll be targeting Geno Smith to have over 21.5 completions, which is priced at (-120). Smith finished with just 16 in week one, but I’m expecting that to be a season low for him by the end of the season. In 2022, the Seahawks QB completed 22 or more passes in 12 games, including the postseason. One of those games was against Detroit as well.

While some may shy away from going up against the Lions' secondary after beating the Chiefs in week one, I think Smith will be fine against them, especially with his receiving corps. Patrick Mahomes completed 21 passes in week one, but that number may be a lot different if his receivers could hold onto the ball.

Detroit’s offense looks like it will be quite dangerous this season, so Seattle will need to throw in order to keep pace with them. The Seahawks were trailing in most of week one and finished with a pass play percentage of 60.87%. With Smith a little more locked in this week, I think he can pick up at least 22 completions.

Pick Two: Dameon Pierce Over 55.5 Rush Yards (-110)

The Texans' primary running back did not get a lot of love in their week one loss to the Ravens, finishing with just 38 yards on 11 carries. Much like Smith, though, I don’t see this becoming a common stat line for Pierce as his offensive coordinator, Bobby Slowik, has already expressed they will get the ball into his hands more this weekend.

It was shocking to see him get a light workload in week one since he has a rookie QB at the helm, and last season, when he was fed the ball, he produced. In the 13 games that Pierce played in 2022, he exceeded 55 yards in nine of them. Houston was outmatched in almost all aspects of the game against the Ravens, but that won’t be the case this weekend against the Colts.

Last weekend against the Jaguars, the Colts defense allowed 105 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Those numbers match up with the Colts defensive line ranking of 18th by PFF entering the season and the fact that they allowed over 100 rushing yards in nine games last season. I think Houston leans on Pierce this week, and since it should be a close game, they shouldn’t have to abandon the run at all.

Pick Three: Mike Williams Anytime Touchdown (+170)(.5 units)

After their tough week one loss to the Dolphins, the Chargers will be in Tennessee to take on the Titans. This could be a nice bounce-back spot for LA, especially since Tennesee allowed 282 yards through the air last weekend and has two starters in the secondary listed as questionable this weekend.

These injuries could lead to a big day for the Chargers receiving corps, and after catching four balls for 67 yards against the Titans in 2022, I think Mike Williams will find his way into the end zone against them Sunday. Williams averaged nine yards per target last weekend against Miami, and I could see him being a significant weapon in the red zone for the Chargers offense.