22.09.2023

Week Three NFL Prop Report

The NFL season rolls on into week three, and what better way to prepare for another weekend of NFL action than with some prop bets? We’ll be going over four plays for this weekend's slate, three of which are coming from the same game.

Pick #1 and #2: CJ Stroud Over 21.5 Completions (+102), CJ Stroud Over 33.5 Attempts (-115)

The Houston Texans are still rebuilding, and like they did last week, they will likely continue to find themselves playing from behind. Constantly trying to catch up means one thing, and that is a lot of passing, which Stroud has already done through two weeks. Entering this weekend, the rookie is ranked 7th in completions and 5th in passing attempts.

I expect Stroud to move even higher up on those lists this weekend while playing against the Jaguars. Houston is riddled with injuries, and following a loss of their own, the Jaguars are primed to put up big offensive numbers at home, which means it’s a good thing the Texans have Stroud on an arm management plan throughout the week because he will need it.

Houston ranks 5th in pass play percentage heading into this matchup, and while I’m sure they would like to get Dameon Pierce more involved, the Texans should be able to find some success through the air against Jacksonville. Both quarterbacks that have played against the Jaguars have gone over Stroud’s totals for this game, as Jacksonville has allowed the 10th most completions and seen the 6th most passing attempts in the league.

After going over both these numbers in the first two weeks, I think Stroud is on track to do it again this weekend. The rookie seems to have formed an excellent chemistry with Nico Collins and Tank Dell, so if the Texans find themselves behind again, it could be another big passing day for the rookie.

Pick #3: Zay Flowers Over 49.5 Yards (-115)

Sticking with rookies, Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers has gotten off to a nice start in his NFL career, with 13 catches and 140 yards. Flowers has exceeded this total in both games he’s played so far, and his ability to create yards after the catch makes him an intriguing pick here.

Flowers will be lining up against a Colts defense that has allowed the 6th most passing yards in the league and is allowing an average of 11.6 yards per completion, which is the 5th highest average. Lamar Jackson should have no problem getting him the ball since the Colts' defense has also allowed the 8th highest completion percentage.

The rookie wideout did see his target share come down drastically from week one, but he was still second on the team last week in first read share at 19.2%, according to Fantasy Pros. With 15 targets through two games and an average of 10.8 yards per reception, I think Flowers and his big play potential have a good chance to go over 50 yards for the third straight game.

Pick #4: Calvin Ridley Over 5.5 Receptions (-115)

Ridley burst back onto the NFL scene in a big way during week one, but he would be held to just two catches last weekend against the Chiefs. With Derrick Stingley Jr. out for the Texans, I expect Ridley to perform closer to his eight-catch 101-yard performance in week one. Even with Stingley Jr., the Texans have allowed the second-highest completion percentage in the league at 76.4%.

Playing against numbers like that, Ridley should have a field day, especially since he is second on the team in first read target share, and he’s one of two only two Jacksonville receivers that have been targeted in the red zone, according to Fantasy Pros. Ridley has also run the most routes (55) and has the second most catches against zone coverage (8), which the Texans' defense has a league-average zone coverage rate, according to PFF.