10.11.2023

Week Ten NFL Prop Report

I had to double-check myself when I started writing this edition of the prop report because I just could not believe we are already in week ten of the NFL season. With the weeks flying by, we must ensure we are savoring every opportunity we can to make prop bets. Following a .500 week on prop plays in week nine, we’re back with another edition of the prop report, this time with three plays, two of which revolve around quarterbacks.

Prop Pick #1: Will Levis Over 221.5 Passing Yards (-115/BetMGM)

The Ryan Tannehill era in Tennessee looks to be over. Rookie quarterback Will Levis was named the starter for the rest of the season by head coach Mike Vrabel after performing well in his first two starts, so he will be under center this weekend against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Levis has thrown for 500 yards and four touchdowns through his first two starts, and he has exceeded his passing yards total for this week in both of his starts. The rookie brings a level of explosiveness to the Titans passing game that they have seemingly been missing for years, as he already ranks 9th in yards per attempt among qualifying quarterbacks, according to FantasyPros.

In his most recent start, Levis had a tough matchup with the Steelers' defense, but this week, he has a matchup he should be able to exploit in the Buccaneers' secondary. According to FantasyPros, the Bucs have allowed the 3rd most yards per attempt and the 2nd most passing yards per game this season.

Opponents are completing 68.6% of their passes on the Bucs secondary, and they have allowed 245 or more passing yards in six of their eight games this season. It’s not much of a shock to see the secondary be torched week in and week out since they are below league average in success rate for both man and zone coverage, per PFF.

While Levis will make his share of rookie mistakes moving forward, he has already proven he can push the ball downfield easily and make all the throws necessary to be successful. With an ideal matchup in front of him, I think Levis can further cement his case for being the quarterback of the future in Tennessee.

Prop Pick #2: Sam Laporta Over 50.5 Rec Yards (-110/Bet365)

Heading from one rookie to another, Sam Laporta has been one of the most talked about young players in the league this season, and he has made a lot of bettors and fantasy users very happy. Jared Goff has leaned heavily on his rookie tight end this season, and with a favorable matchup this week against the Chargers secondary, I expect that to continue.

Laporta has gone over 50 yards in five of his eight games, and he is averaging 7.36 yards per target and 10.09 yards per reception. I expect him to have another high-volume game this weekend against a Chargers defense that has allowed the 4th most receptions (53) and 3rd most receiving yards to tight ends this season (552).

Los Angeles plays a very zone-heavy defense, but according to PFF, they allow 11.5 yards per reception in that coverage to go along with an explosive play rate of 15.6%. The last three tight ends to play the Chargers have exceeded 60 yards, and Laporta has the ability to make it four by the end of the day.

Prop Pick #3: Joshua Dobbs Over 27.5 Rush Yards (-115/DraftKings)

After playing the hero last week for the Minnesota Vikings just days after being traded to them, Josh Dobbs will make his first official start for the team this weekend. Dobbs has been one of the best stories in the league this season, and he’s shown a real ability to create with his legs, averaging 36 rush yards per game up to this point.

Dobbs ran for 66 yards in his Vikings debut, making it six of his nine games this season that he’s gone over his total for this weekend. In his last four games, Dobbs has recorded at least six rush attempts, and he’s lining up across a Saints defense this Sunday that has allowed the 3rd most rushing yards on the 11th most rushing attempts to quarterbacks. Using his legs is a big part of his game, and after his performance last week, I think he can keep the momentum flowing into this week.