20.10.2023

Week Seven NFL Prop Report

After going 1-2 last weekend for (-1.17) units on our prop report, we took our first losing week for this article since week three. With a new week upon us, the opportunity to bounce back has arrived. In this receiver-heavy edition of the prop report, I’ll break down my four best prop plays for week seven, including an anytime touchdown scorer bet.

Prop Picks #1 and #2: Josh Reynolds Over 2.5 Receptions (+110/BetMGM) and Josh Reynolds Over 30.5 Rec. Yards (-115/DraftKings)

One of the best stories in the NFL this season has been the success of the Detroit Lions, and for the second straight week, they find themselves on the road. A lot of the Lions' success has come from Jared Goff and their passing game, as they rank 4th in passing yards per game and 3rd in yards per reception.

Not only are they on the road for the second consecutive week, but they are also playing solid defense for the second straight week. The Baltimore Ravens are second in the league in total yards allowed per game, but even with that, I think Josh Reynolds has a favorable matchup against them.

According to PFF, the Ravens play man coverage the 6th most out of any team, which happens to be the coverage that Reynolds is targeted the most in. His 26.3% target rate in man coverage is the highest of all the wide receivers on the team. This has led him to pull in seven catches for 123 receiving yards just against man, giving him the 9th best man receiving grade in the league, per PFF.

Not only has Reynolds feasted in man coverage, but he has exceeded both these totals in every game this season except one. With an average of 3.17 receptions and 56.83 yards per game, the Lions wideout has proven to be a reliable target for Jared Goff, and with his deep threat ability, he has the potential to go over his yards prop in one play.

Prop Pick #3: Michael Mayer Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-115/DraftKings)

It took quite a few weeks, but the Raiders have fully decided to make their rookie tight end a part of their offense. According to FantasyPros, Mayer was on the field for 81% of the offensive snaps last week and saw an 18.7% target share. His increased role against the Patriots resulted in five catches for 75 yards, and frankly, I don’t see this role being affected in the absence of Jimmy Garoppolo.

Whether it’s Brian Hoyer or Aidan O’Connell under center, the Raiders offense has an ideal matchup with the Chicago Bears defense. The Bears defense is the type of unit you want to target when looking at prop plays, and that’s the case in this situation since they’ve allowed the 7th most receiving yards and 2nd most receptions to tight ends this season.

In general, Chicago is also ranked 29th in passing yards allowed per game and 30th in yards allowed per pass. The Bears zone-heavy defense also allows 8.5 yards per coverage target, per PFF, which ranks at the bottom of the league and once again bodes well for Mayer.

Curtis Samuel Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+310/FanDuel)

For just the second time since starting the prop report, I’ll be targeting an anytime touchdown scorer, and what better defense to target for this than the New York Giants. Curtis Samuel has found the end zone in three consecutive weeks and is now leading the team in red zone targets, according to FantasyPros.

Not only should Samuel and Howell be able to connect in the red zone since New York is 23rd in opponent red zone scoring percentage, but Samuel should be able to beat them in other ways. According to PFF, New York plays in man coverage at a top-five rate and allows one of the highest touchdown rates in man (45.3%). This sets up an excellent matchup for Samuel since he leads the Commanders receivers in man coverage receptions and yards.