03.11.2023

Week Nine NFL Prop Report

A low-scoring Thursday Night Football game started week nine, and now we head into the Sunday slate. Week eight was a nice bounce-back week for the prop report, and we’re looking to keep that momentum rolling into this week. With a few solid matchups across the board, we’ve got four prop plays for this week, including a double dip on Alvin Kamara in the passing game.

Prop #1 and #2: Alvin Kamara Over 32.5 Rec Yards (-115/DraftKings) and Kamara Over 4.5 Receptions (-110/BetMGM)

I mentioned last week how a significant aspect of prop bets is knowing what teams and matchups to target, and the Chicago Bears are one of those teams. Following their 38-27 win over the Colts, the New Orleans Saints are back home to host the Bears this weekend, and I expect Alvin Kamara to continue his role as the workhorse for the Saints offense.

Kamara is averaging 7.8 receptions and 45.6 receiving yards per game this season, and he has exceeded this weekend's receiving yards prop in four of the five games he’s played. Carr has relied heavily on the running back in the passing game, which has led to Kamara averaging 8.8 targets per game. Against zone coverage, which Chicago plays a majority of the time, Kamara has a 26.9% target share, per FantasyPros.

Chicago is very much a run defense, so if the Saints do want to get Kamara involved, it will be through the passing game. Carr has the 6th highest checkdown rate in the league, so between the matchup and his willingness to check it down, the targets should be there for Kamara.

Aside from the fact that they’re a zone-heavy defense, Chicago has struggled in general to slow opposing running backs in the passing game. Entering this week, the Bears defense has allowed the 3rd most receptions and the most receiving yards to running backs, so it’s the perfect situation for Kamara to feast in the passing game again.

Prop #3: Romeo Doubs Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110/Bet365)

In terms of weapons, the Packers should have a dynamic passing game, but the problem has been the play of Jordan Love. The young quarterback's struggles have led to some alarming numbers for the Packers wideouts, but they have a great matchup this week with the Rams pass defense, and I think Doubs can be successful if Love can put the ball in his hands.

According to PFF, the Rams play zone coverage at the top-five rate in the league, yet their coverage grade in that defense of 45.3 is the worst in the league. Doubs has been the best receiver on the team when it comes to beating zone coverage, as he has the second most receiving yards and best air yard percentage and target share on the team.

Doubs has only gone over this weekend's total in two games, but he is averaging 7.3 targets per game, so it’s up to Love to find his wideout. The two players expected to cover Doubs this weekend have allowed a passer rating of 88.7 or higher, according to FantasyPros, so the matchup is in his favor no matter which way you look at it.

Prop #4: Demario Douglas Over 40.5 Rec Yards (-114/BetRivers)

I know what you’re thinking: a Patriots wide receiving prop? In this economy? Well, hear me out; over the past two weeks, Douglas has seen 13 targets and nine receptions for 79 yards. The Liberty product has been the leader of the New England passing game, which is expected to continue this weekend.

Last week, Douglas had a 24.1% target share and 84.4% route run rate, per FantasyPros. Now he takes on a man-heavy Commanders’ defense, and against man, he has the second highest target rate on the team. Washington has also struggled to limit slot receivers, allowing the 3rd most yards to slot wideouts, according to FantasyPros. Between the volume he’ll see and his defensive matchup, I think Douglas is a good play to target this weekend, even with the Patriots' struggles in the passing game.