29.09.2023

Week Four NFL Prop Report

Week four of the NFL season has arrived, and with it comes the return of the weekly prop report. With plenty of good games on the docket, there are countless prop opportunities to delve into, but for today, we’ll focus on three of them, including one for current MVP frontrunner Tua Tagovailoa.

Prop #1: Tua Tagovailoa Over 22.5 Completions (-125/DraftKings)

Following their 70-point performance last weekend, Tagovailoa and the Dolphins offense will go on the road to take on the Buffalo Bills. Through three weeks, Tagovailoa has exceeded this total in two of them, and going up against a strong Bills team this week, I don’t see him being able to get the fourth quarter off since his team is up so much in the game.

Miami enters this week 15th in passing attempts per game, but Tua has the 5th best completion percentage in the league. On top of that, the gunslinger has the benefit of running an offense that has a lot of routes that are quick and have a high completion percentage. Tagovailoa will undoubtedly throw the ball downfield as well, and according to FantasyPros, he has the 9th best deep adjusted completion rate.

Tagovailoa's opponent this weekend has allowed the 10th-highest adjusted completion rate in the league and has yet to face a quarterback anywhere near Tua’s ability. In the two games the Dolphins played against the Bills last season, Tagovailoa put up a passer rating of 123.8 and 104, so he has shown an ability to beat the Buffalo secondary before.

With Jaylen Waddle back in the mix on offense, Miami has plenty of weapons they can dial up plays for. Not to mention, if it’s a close game like expected, Tua may need to drop back more often and for all four quarters.

Prop #2: Puka Nacua Over 73.5 Receiving Yards (-115/BetMGM)

Nacua was the talk of the league during the first two weeks of the season, but after catching 25 passes in that span, he was brought back to reality a bit against the Bengals, finishing with just five catches for 72 yards. Monday Night was the first time the Rams' rookie receiver finished a game with under 100 yards, but with his matchup this weekend, he could certainly go over that number again.

Entering this weekend, Nacua still has the 4th highest first-read percentage in the league to go along with a 31.7% target share, according to FantasyPros. He’ll put those numbers up against a zone-heavy Colts defense, which has been the coverage Nacua has had the most success in.

Against zone, Nacua has a 43.9% first read share, and it only helps that the Colts' two main corners have a 60% or higher completion percentage against them. Dallis Flowers also allows an average of 10.7 yards per compilation, and as a defense, they rank 21st in net yards gained per passing attempt. LA is throwing the 3rd most passes per game this season, and I think most of them end up in Nacua’s direction this weekend.

Prop #3: Josh Palmer Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110/BetMGM)

Los Angeles was able to pick up their first win of the season last weekend, but it didn’t come without bad news, as they lost wide receiver Mike Williams for the season due to a torn ACL. This means LA will need one of their wideouts to step up alongside Keenan Allen, and Josh Palmer could certainly be that guy.

Palmer went for 66 yards last week on four catches while also getting a season-high seven targets. Along with stepping into a more prominent role, Palmer is also in a good spot this week since he has a 21% target share against man defenses, and the Raiders play primarily man defense. Two of the Raiders' top three corners allow an average of 13.1 yards per reception, and as a team, they’ve allowed the 12th most yards after the catch.