05.10.2023

Week Five NFL Prop Report

Week five of the NFL season doesn’t get off to the most exciting start since the Bears and Commanders play in the first primetime game of the week, but there are plenty of exciting games set to be played on Sunday. After going 3-0 with our prop report last weekend, we’ll be looking to keep that positive momentum going with three more plays.

Pick #1: De’Von Achane Over 51.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Multiple rookies have burst onto the scene early this season, and one of them is Miami Dolphins running back De’Von Achane. His coming out party happened in the Dolphins 70 point game against the Broncos, where he rushed for 203 yards on 18 attempts. He would follow that up by rushing for 101 yards and two touchdowns on eight attempts last weekend against the Bills.

Achane has fully taken over in the Dolphins' backfield, as he played 60% of the snaps last weekend and is expected to have a similar output this weekend. According to FantasyPros, the rookie leads the NFL in explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt, which sets him up to have a huge week against a struggling Giants defense.

Not only are the Giants allowing an average of 113.8 rush yards and 4.4 yards per attempt, but they have allowed the 4th highest explosive run rate. With a rushing defense that is 22nd in expected points contributed, the Giants are no match for Achane and the creative offensive system he plays in.

The Dolphins have the 12th-highest run-play percentage in the league entering this matchup and lead the league with an average of 6.3 yards per rush attempt. Between the number of touches Achane will likely see and the Giants' inability to create defensive pressure, I think he can cruise over his total for the third straight week.

Pick #2: Tyler Conklin Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

The Jets may have lost on Sunday night, but Zach Wilson looked the best he has in his entire career in the losing effort. One of Wilson’s primary targets in the game was tight-end Tyler Conklin, who pulled in four catches on six targets for 58 yards. This season, Conklin has a 12.9% target share and 11.8% first read share, according to FantasyPros, and he has seemed to turn into a safety net for Wilson in the passing game.

After last week’s performance, Conklin is averaging 34 yards per game, which is solid considering the defenses the Jets have played up to this point. New York will finally get a break in terms of opponent this weekend, taking on a Broncos defense that has allowed the highest completion percentage in the league and an average of 285.5 passing yards per game.

Denver is allowing yards by the chunk this season in the passing game, ranking 32nd in yards per passing attempt. To make things even better for Conklin, the Broncos have also allowed 235 receiving yards by tight ends, which is the 5th most in the league. In their loss last weekend, Denver allowed Cole Kmet to go for 85 yards, and while Conklin may not break 80 yards, he should still have a big day in the passing game.

Pick #3: Mac Jones Under 222.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Coming off what is likely the worst game of his career, Mac Jones will now have to face another top passing defense in the New Orleans Saints. Over his last two games, Jones has not been able to go over this weekend’s total, and it’s hard to imagine the Patriots will still be 4th in passing attempts per game after Sunday.

Jones is averaging just 5.9 yards per pass, which is 23rd in the league, and he’ll matchup with a Saints defense that is 12th in average passing yards allowed per game, 6th in average yards allowed per attempt, and 4th in opponent completion percentage at 59.03%. New Orleans already has five interceptions this season, and after Jones’s performance last week, I think he’ll play it safe for a large part of the game and not try to push it downfield.