Week nine of the NFL season kicks off tonight with the undefeated Philadephia Eagles heading to Houston to take on the (1-5-1) Texans. This game is not what a lot of people would call a marquee match-up or what you would hope for as a primetime game but there is still a lot of value on the board when it comes to betting. The Eagles are currently 13.5 points favorites in most books with the point total set at 45.5 at the moment but tonight I will be targeting two player prop bets as my best bets.
The first player we will be targeting is Eagles running back Miles Sanders and I’ll be taking the over for his rushing yards prop currently set at 78.5 (-115) on BetMGM and BetRivers Sportsbook. This Eagles offense can beat you in a number of ways which is a big reason why they have yet to lose this season but the reason for this bet primarily comes from the Texans inability to stop the run this season.
Houston’s defense comes into tonight’s game ranked dead last in opponent rushing yards allowed with an average of 186 per game. They also rank 31st in the league in rushing yards per play allowed with 5.6 yards per carry. Philadelphia knows they can beat the Texans through the air or on the ground but this is an Eagles team who rushes the ball the second most in the NFL with 35 rushes per game so Sanders will definitely be getting a large share of attempts tonight.
In seven games this season Sanders has managed to go over his rushing yards total five times and this will by far be the worst defense he has faced to this point. The Eagles running back comes into tonight’s game averaging 80.4 rush yards a game with his single-game high being 134 yards against a defense in Jacksonville that ranks much higher in stopping the run than Houston.
This total is the highest it’s ever been set by the sportsbooks during this season by 8.5 yards but I believe the combination of the Texans struggles on defense and the Eagles willingness to run the ball Sanders can go over his total even with the spike in his total.
My second play will be targeting Texans wide receiver Phillip Dorsett and the under on his receiving yards prop which is currently set at 29.5 yards (-115) on BetMGM Sportsbook. The Philadelphia pass defense is a big reason why they are undefeated and I expect them to give Texans quarterback Davis Mills a big challenge when it comes to moving the ball downfield through the air.
The Eagles currently rank third in opponent completion percentage, second in yards per pass allowed, and fourth in opponent passing yards per game so with all this being said I have a hard time believing that a receiver averaging 11 yards per game like Dorsett will be able to give this secondary fits.
Dorsett has only had a receiving prop total set for him three times this season, not including tonight, and he has gone under the total all three times. Last week against the Titans Dorsett was supposed to take on a bigger role in the absence of Nico Collins but he was only able to bring in one catch for six yards on the day. Houston has the 29th-ranked offense for a reason and I don’t see Mills being able to find Dorsett consistently enough to go over this total throughout the game.
Miles Sanders Over 78.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Phillip Dorsett Under 29.5 Receiving Yards (-115)