15.12.2022

Week 15 Thursday Night Football Prop Picks

The Brock Purdy hype train pulls into Seattle tonight to take on the Seahawks for Thursday Night Football. We’ll be diving into my best prop bets for the action, including one from each team.

Prop Bet #1: Christian McCaffrey Over 79.5 Rush Yards (-110)

The big story last week was about the last pick in the NFL Draft, Brock Purdy, beating Tom Brady in his first career start. There is no denying Purdy was impressive, but Christian McCaffrey’s performance is worth noting.

The 49ers running back rushed for 119 yards and had 34 receiving yards as well, and tonight he’ll be taking on a Seahawks run defense that is 31st in the league in rushing yards per game allowed.

In most statistical categories, Seattle’s run defense has ranked at the bottom of the league all season. The Seahawks allow 4.8 yards per carry which is 28th in the league, and they are 26th in the league in expected points contributed by the run defense.

McCaffery had 14 attempts last weekend and 17 in the week prior, and with the news of Brock Purdy playing a banged-up tonight, I expect he’ll see another large workload. San Francisco is averaging the eighth most rushing attempts per game this season, and with all the factors of tonight’s game, it’s unlikely they will avoid that strategy.

Seattle has allowed the most rushing touchdowns in the NFL this season, and I think head coach Kyle Shanahan will be able to create an effective and run-heavy game plan that will lead to McCaffrey going over his rush total.

Prop Bet #2: Will Dissly Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

The Seahawks never seemed willing to “Let Russ Cook,” but it’s a different story with Geno Smith and the Seattle offense this season. Seattle’s pass play percentage is 12th in the league, and Smith is averaging 7.4 yards per pass, which is where the target of our second prop bet comes in.

Tight-end Will Dissly has gone over 14 yards receiving in eight of the last ten games he’s played. His receiving yards total tonight is the lowest the number has been set at in the past ten games despite his longest reception in five of those games being longer than 14 yards.

Dissly may only be averaging 2.4 receptions per game, but he averages 8.8 yards a target and 9.9 yards per catch. Dissly is averaging 24.4 yards per game on the season, and even with the 49ers being an excellent defense, all eyes will be on DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, leaving some possible openings in the defense for Dissly to find.

Seattle is eighth in the league third down conversions, and Dissly has caught 18 passes resulting in first downs this season, and with Kenneth Walker returning from injury, look for Dissly to play a factor on third downs.