nfl
15.12.2023

Week 15 NFL Prop Report

After having a bit of bad luck on prop bets with injuries, we bounced back in a big way last week, as we swept the prop report with a 3-0 record. As we look to keep things going this week, we will review five plays, and four of them stem from what I think will be big days in the passing game from two rookie running backs.

Props #1 and #2: Bijan Robinson Over 2.5 Receptions (-120/BetMGM) and Robinson Over 18.5 Rec Yards (-115/Caesars)

Who would have thought that getting an explosive first-round pick going could help an offense? It may have taken Falcons coach Arthur Smith some time to get Bijan Robinson going, but over the last few weeks, he’s seen an increase in volume, which has led to some solid stat lines.

Over his last four games, he has averaged 19.5 touches, and according to FantasyPros, since week 12, he has averaged 3.7 receptions and 37.3 receiving yards per game. This means he’s exceeded his current totals in three straight games, and with the explosiveness he’s added to the passing game, I have a hard time believing Atlanta will suddenly shy away from using him.

Robinson saw seven targets against the Buccaneers last weekend, and his 54 receiving yards helped Desmond Ridder go for 347 in the game. Ridder does not have the same ideal matchup in the passing game this week, as he is set to play a Panthers defense that has held quarterbacks to the lowest passing yards per game since week nine, per FantasyPros.

If Ridder is not in a position where he can target Drake London or Kyle Pitts downfield, then that means Robinson could be in line for a lot of check-down targets, or screen passes in order to give Atlanta some semblance of a passing game. In their first matchup against Carolina in week one, Robinson took six passes for 27 yards, and there is no reason why he can’t have a similar day this weekend. Unfortunately, due to Georgia sports betting legislation, in-state Falcons fans won’t be able to tail these plays.

Props #3 and #4: Tyjae Spears Over 2.5 Receptions (-118/FanDuel) and Spears Over 15.5 Rec Yards (-110/DraftKings)

Sticking with dynamic rookie running backs, Tyjae Spears is coming off a career game against the Dolphins in which he pulled in six catches for 89 yards. The Tulane product now has ten receptions over his last two games, as he is turning into an excellent safety net option for fellow rookie Will Levis. With that performance on Monday Night, he has also exceeded the 2.5 reception mark in eight of his 13 games, including five of his last seven.

Spears is an excellent compliment to Derrick Henry’s run style, as the rookie offers an impressive level of explosiveness that not only helps on the ground, but also through the air. In the win over Miami, Spears saw eight targets, which was the second highest on the team, and a result of him playing a season-high 66% of the snaps, per FantasyPros.

Coming off a showing like that, I would imagine Mike Vrabel continues to give the rookie opportunities, especially since he has a favorable matchup this weekend against the Texans. On the season, Houston allows an average of 5.2 receptions and 41.6 receiving yards per game, which are the league's 8th and 6th highest marks, respectively.

Prop #5: Joe Flacco Over 20.5 Completions (-130/Bet365)

To close out this week's prop report, we’ll be going from two rookies to a long-standing veteran in Joe Flacco. The former Super Bowl champion has had two strong showings in his two starts back in the league, as he completed 23 passes against the Rams and 26 last weekend against the Jaguars.

For the first time in a while, it seems like Cleveland’s coaching staff has a quarterback they trust to throw the ball around the yard consistently since Flacco has averaged 44.5 attempts in his two games back. The veteran will also be taking on a Bears defense this weekend that ranks 28th in opponent completion percentage and, according to PFF, has a below-average success rate in both man and zone coverage.

Recap

  • Bijan Robinson Over 2.5 Receptions (-120) on BetMGM

  • Bijan Robinson Over 18.5 Rec Yards (-115) on Caesars

  • Tyjae Spears Over 2.5 Receptions (-118) on FanDuel

  • Tyjae Spears Over 15.5 Rec Yards (-110) on DraftKings

  • Joe Flacco Over 20.5 Completions (-130) on Bet365

*odds subject to change

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