nfl
08.12.2023

Week 14 NFL Prop Report

One of the biggest risks you run when it comes to betting on prop markets is the possibility of injuries, which is something that affected us twice last week. Both Rhamondre Stevenson and Christian Kirk looked well on their way to cashing the bets we had on them when they left the game with injuries, but that’s just part of the gambling process. As we move forward to this week and hope for more luck in terms of injuries, I’ll break down my top three prop plays for week 14.

Prop Pick #1: Cole Kmet Over 31.5 Rec Yards (-115/DraftKings)

If Justin Fields has made one thing clear this season, his two most trusted targets are DJ Moore and Cole Kmet. The tight end is second on the team in both receptions (56) and receiving yards (482) headed into week 14. After his seven-catch and 43-yard performance against the Vikings, Kmet is averaging 40.1 receiving yards per game on the season, and he has exceeded his total this weekend in six of his last ten games.

Over Kmet’s last five games, he is averaging 7.2 targets per game, and with the Bears' offense focusing on quick and easy throws for Justin Fields, I expect Kmet to continue seeing a lot of passes thrown his way. Not only is Kmet getting a lot of volume in the passing game, but he’ll be lining up against a Lions defense this weekend that has allowed a lot of big plays as of late.

According to PFF, the Lions' defense has allowed the 4th highest explosive play rate when they are in zone coverage, and their ability to limit those types of plays doesn’t get any better when in man coverage, either. In general, the Lions' defense has not looked right over the past few weeks, as they’ve posted a negative EPA in four consecutive weeks.

With an average of 7.09 yards per target this season and the Lions allowing an average of 47 receiving yards per game to tight ends, I think Kmet can continue to be one of Fields most trusted targets this weekend.

Prop Pick #2: Kyren Williams Over 15.5 Rush Attempts (-130/BetMGM)

Since his return from injury, Kyren Williams has played his tail off. The second-year running back has had three touchdowns in his last two games, and Los Angeles has continually called his number. Williams has gone over 15 carries in both games since his return from injury, and over his last five games, he’s cleared this total in four of them.

According to FantasyPros, Williams played a whopping 94% of the offensive snaps last weekend for the Rams, and he will likely be around a similar percentage this weekend in Baltimore. With the Rams averaging 26.6 rushes per game and Williams playing more than 90% of the snaps, you could see why I’m rushing to the sportsbook ticket counter (aka my phone) to place this bet.

The Ravens are the top defensive team in the league in terms of DVOA, so LA isn’t going to be able to beat them with a one-dimensional passing attack, they will need to get Williams involved. Additionally, the Ravens have the 8th lowest run stuff rate since week eight, per FantasyPros, so with as smart of a coach as Sean McVay is, I think he leans on his young running back.

Prop Pick #3: Chubba Hubbard Over 55.5 Rush Yards (-114/FanDuel)

There is no denying Chubba Hubbard is the primary back for the Panthers, as he is coming off a week in which he played 65% of the snaps. With that volume last week, Hubbard took his 25 carries and ran for 104 yards. After that performance, Hubbard is headed into another stellar matchup with a struggling Saints defense. Unfortunately, in-state Panthers fans won’t be able to tail this pick due to current North Carolina sports betting legislation.

Seven straight opponents have rushed for over 113 yards against New Orleans, and according to FantasyPros, they have allowed the seventh-highest explosive run rate since week eight. Putting the ball on the ground against New Orleans has been a recipe for success for most offenses, and with Carolina struggling on offense, there is a good chance they hand the ball to Hubbard and hope for the best.

Recap

  • Cole Kmet Over 31.5 Rec Yards (-115) on DraftKings

  • Kyren Williams Over 15.5 Rush Attempts (-130) on BetMGM

  • Chubba Hubbard Over 55.5 Rush Yards (-114) on FanDuel

*odds subject to change

🔥 Hottest sportsbooks:

Arvostelu 4/5
Arvostelu 4/5
Arvostelu 5/5

More predictions: