Week 13 of the NFL season is here, and it will begin with an AFC East showdown between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots. The AFC East division has been one of the most competitive divisions in all of football with every team boasting a winning record. We’ll be going over two best bets for this one including a plus money prop bet with excellent value.
Out of the six wins the New England Patriots currently have only two of them have been against a team with a winning record, and both of those wins are against the Jets. In the three other games against teams with winning records, the Patriots lost and failed to cover in those match-ups. I don’t think tonight will be any different even with them playing at home.
If you were to look at the Patriots' defensive stats without context they would be impressive, and while some numbers still hold up it’s worth mentioning in those three games they lost against winning teams they allowed 20,37, and 33 points. This defense won’t be lining up against the Jets pre Mike White tonight, instead, they’ll face Josh Allen and the number two scoring offense in the NFL.
The Bills' defense actually allows fewer points per game and rushing yards per game than the Patriots' defense. The key difference here is the Bills' offense has shown they can put up points on any defense, but the Patriots have not. New England is 23rd in rushing yards per game and 19th in passing yards per game, which has led to a third down conversion percentage of 37.14% which is 25th in the league.
Not being able to sustain drives and putting the ball back into Josh Allen’s hand is recipe for disaster. The Bills' offense has not had to punt in their last 20 possessions against this Patriots' defense. With Damien Harris being out tonight giving Mac Jones one less weapon, I just don’t think the Patriots can stick around in this game the whole time and stay within a field goal. It’s all about the Bills mafia tonight.
We’ll be targeting a wide receiver prop bet to round out our bets for this one. Gabe Davis has gone over 3 receptions in the last three games so getting him at plus money to go over 3 tonight has too much value to pass up. The Bills' number two receiver has been targeted 22 times by Josh Allen over these past three weeks and I’m expecting another high-target night.
With a bulk of the attention being on Stefon Diggs tonight, Davis should be able to reap the benefits of that. The Patriots have been a solid pass defense this season but their DVOA against number two receivers ranks 20th in the league.
Just last week against the Vikings, number two receiver Adam Thielen was able to haul in 9 catches against this Patriots secondary. With Josh Allen’s ability to extend plays the Patriots' secondary will have a hard time stopping these Bills receivers from racking up catches.