17.11.2023

Week 11 NFL Prop Report

Not only has Josh Dobbs been one of the best stories in the NFL this season, but he was the only reason we didn’t go 0-3 last week on the prop report. As we look to put our 1-2 week ten behind us, we’ll move on to three plays for week 11, including a play on Browns new starting quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson.

Prop Pick #1: Dorian Thompson-Robinson Under 166.5 Pass Yards (-110/Bet365)

Deshaun Watson is out for the season, which is another reason why his contract might be the worst in football, but that is a conversation for a different day. With Watson out, many expected PJ Walker to take the reigns as the starting quarterback. Instead, it was announced rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson would be under center this weekend against the Steelers.

The UCLA product made one start earlier in the season when he took on the Ravens in week four. Baltimore is a tough matchup for a rookie QB, so DTR finished the day with just 121 passing yards and three interceptions. Thompson-Robinson has an even worse matchup this weekend against a Steelers defense that has held quarterbacks to the 7th lowest passer rating since week seven, per FantasyPros.

It’s hard to imagine the Browns will have DTR do much this weekend, as they were already entering this week at the top of the league in terms of rushing attempts per game. In his lone start earlier this season, the rookie attempted 36 passes, but he only completed 52.8% of them.

Cleveland was not an offense that would push it downfield often, to begin with, ranking 28th in passing yards per attempt, but they especially won’t try it with DTR under center. Against the Ravens, he averaged 3.4 yards per attempt, so the combination of the team's overall game plan with him under center and the Steelers' recent success with pass defense, I don’t see him lighting it up in the passing game.

Prop Pick #2: Marquise Brown Under 59.5 Rec Yards (-115/DraftKings)

The Cardinals got Kyler Murray back last weekend, and while most would think that would be good for the Cardinals' leading receiver, it actually resulted in his lowest output of the season. Brown was 4th on the team in first read share at 15.4% and had a target share of 12.5%, per FantasyPros, in Murray’s debut last week. That resulted in a season-low one catch on four targets, leading to just 28 yards.

After his performance last weekend, Brown is averaging 46.8 yards per game and has only managed to exceed this weekend's total in three of his ten games this season. A lot could go into his low usage day with Murray back under center, but seeing his first read share and target share decrease by almost half does not make me believe he will suddenly break out this week.

It will be especially tough for him to go over his total since he matches up with a zone-heavy Texans team. According to FantasyPros, the Texans have run a two-high look at one of the highest averages in the league since week six, and against that coverage, Brown has already seen his usage drop. Between the coverage and Murray’s unwillingness to target him last week, I have a hard time seeing him exceed this total for the first time since week five.

Prop Pick #3: Luke Musgrave Over 27.5 Rec Yards (-115/BetRivers)

We started this report with a pick on a rookie and will end on one as well. Luke Musgrave offers a lot of potential in the Packers passing game, and he is entering this weekend with an average of 34.7 receiving yards per game. Over the past two weeks, though, he has established his presence by going for 50+ yards in each of the two games.

Musgrave matches up with a Chargers defense this weekend that is very zone-heavy despite getting picked apart by opponents. According to PFF, LA allows a 16.7% explosive play rate, 8.5 yards per coverage target, and 12 yards per reception in zone coverage. On top of that, they have also allowed the third most receiving yards to tight ends this season with 615.