27.06.2023

Washington Nationals @ Seattle Mariners Game Preview and Pick

Following a much-needed win last night in game one of the series, the Seattle Mariners can secure a series victory tonight with another win. We’ll preview the game before going over which side I’ll be backing on the run-line.

Game Preview

Offense was in abundance last night in the Mariners' 8-4 win, with at least one run being scored in seven of the nine innings. Seattle starter Luis Castillo allowed one run in each of the first three innings before settling down and giving his team a strong seven-inning start. The Mariners' offense made it a 3-3 game by the end of the fourth before taking the lead on a three-run fifth inning punctuated by a Kolten Wong RBI double.

Tonight the Mariners will go from having a veteran on the mound to a rookie, as Bryan Woo will take the ball for his fifth career start. The young right-hander had a rough first outing but has since turned in three straight outings where he has allowed two or fewer earned runs. In his most recent outing, Woo went 5 ⅓ scoreless innings against the Yankees while striking out five, which brings him to 25 punchouts in 17.7 innings.

The rookie will take on a Nationals lineup that picked up ten hits yesterday but could not mount a comeback due to leaving 18 runners on base. Washington did get a big day at the plate from Lane Thomas, who went 2-5 with a double and his 14th home run of the year. Dominic Smith also provided some offense with a solo home run.

Washington will also have a rookie on the mound tonight, with Jake Irvin set to make his tenth start of the season. In 42 innings, the right-hander has pitched to a 4.71 ERA with 33 strikeouts and 23 walks. After a string of rough starts, Irvin has been solid in his last two outings, as he has thrown 11 total innings and allowed two earned runs with ten strikeouts.

Pick for the Game

The Seattle Mariners' run-line of (-1.5) is currently priced at (-105), and I’ll be backing them for my play in this one. Washington is 3-7 ATS in their last ten games, and their struggles with consistency on the offensive end were on full display yesterday. I think Seattle can carry their momentum from last night and ride the hot hand of their rookie starter.

The Mariners are 14th in wRC+ and 19th in OPS against right-handed pitching at home over the past month, but they should be able to get to Jake Irvin tonight. The Nationals starter is in the 23rd percentile in xERA/xwOBA, and he currently has an expected FIP on the road of 4.88 to go along with an opponent batting average of .286. After Irvin leaves the game, the Mariners will also face a Nationals bullpen with the third-highest expected FIP over the past month.

Offensively, the Nationals are hitting .216 against right-handed pitching on the road while also ranking 23rd in OPS and 25th in wRC+. They’ll face a starter in Bryan Woo, who has flashed some impressive stuff, as his fastball has a 33.7% whiff percentage, which has led to him having an expected batting average of .194 and xERA of 2.45.