18.05.2023

Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins Game Preview and Prop Pick

A sweep is on the line in the final game of this three-game series, as Miami has won two straight one-run games and now has the ability to sweep the series and win their fourth straight. We’ll preview this afternoon's game before going over my best prop play for the action.

Game Preview

The Marlins were able to push four runs across against Mackenzie Gore yesterday over 5 ⅓ innings, and that lead became just enough for them to hold on for the victory. Behind Jorge Soler’s tenth homer of the year and RBIs from Bryan De La Cruz and Yuli Gurriel, Miami’s lineup gave Edward Cabrera enough run support to work with. The hard-throwing righty struck out six over five innings while allowing two earned runs, and he was followed by the Marlins bullpen throwing four impressive innings.

Miami will send another young flame thrower to the hill this afternoon in Eury Pérez, who is set to make his second career start in the Majors. In his first start against the Reds, Pérez went 4 ⅔ innings with seven strikeouts and two earned runs. Cincinnati was able to get to the young righty for two home runs, but overall the league and baseball fans got a glimpse of how special Pérez’s stuff can be and why he was tabbed as such an exciting prospect.

Pérez will face a Nationals lineup that had nine hits and nine strikeouts in yesterday's game. Jeimer Candelario, Corey Dickerson, and Ildemaro Vargas had seven of the team’s nine hits, including Dickerson’s first home run of the year, which drove in two of the team’s three runs.

On the mound for Washington today will be veteran right-hander Trevor Williams. In eight starts this season, Williams has thrown 38.3 innings with a 4.23 ERA, 27 strikeouts, and nine walks. In Williams’ most recent outing against the Mets, he threw just 2 ⅓ innings with one strikeout and one earned run allowed.

Prop Pick

For my prop play in this one, I’ll be targeting Eury Pérez to go over his strikeout total of 4.5, which is priced at (-130). The righty racked up seven in his first career start and showed the type of stuff that will be tough for teams to face for the first time. Pérez’s slider that he threw 35.2% of the time in his first start warranted a whiff percentage of 53.3%.

The right-hander had a CSW of 31% in his debut, which is above league average and sets up well today against an aggressive Nationals lineup. Washington is 4th in percentage of pitched swung at, a stat in which the top six teams all have losing records. The Nationals are also third in first-pitch swinging percentage, so with Pérez’s stuff, he could be getting ahead of guys a lot today.

With his 34% whiff percentage across all his pitches and the Nationals' aggressiveness at the dish, I think this a good matchup for Pérez to rack up punchouts. Washington’s aggressiveness should also help him work deeper into the game than he did in his first start, which means the longer he goes, the more opportunities he has to go over his total.