Both the Jazz and Spurs will enter tonight amid losing streaks, so one of them will be finding their way back into the win column tonight when they match up in San Antonio. We’ll preview the game before going over my best prop play for the action.
There are two races in the NBA at the moment: the race for the playoffs and the race for the best odds to have the number one pick in the draft. The Spurs are currently in the second race listed, as they are in 14th place in the Western Conference and, over their last ten games, have a 3-7 record. In that span, they are 29th in NET rating and offensive efficiency.
Coming into tonight, the Spurs have lost four straight games, and in three of them, they failed to score more than 94 points. Scoring numbers similar to those have become common recently and have San Antonio ranked dead last in the league in true shooting percentage.
Defensively, the Spurs are producing a similar type of output, as they rank 21st in defensive efficiency over the past ten games and have allowed 130 or more points in three straight. With opponents shooting an average of 50.2% from the field in that span, the Utah Jazz, who have also lost four straight, should be running to the arena tonight.
Utah is fresh off a loss to the Phoenix Suns in which they scored 103 points on 44% shooting. Defense has been more of their issue over the past ten games, but their offense has been stagnant, to say the least, ranking 18th in the league in offensive efficiency rating. With their offense ranked where it is and their defense ranked 26th in efficiency, the Jazz have an overall NET rating in that span of (-4.5).
For my prop play in this matchup, I’ll be targeting Talen Horton-Tucker over 4.5 rebounds at (-145). Over his last ten games, he is averaging 5.3 rebounds per game, and he has gone over his prop total in seven of those contests. The Jazz shooting guard is fresh off a game in which he pulled in eight rebounds against a solid Phoenix Suns team, and now he has a more than ideal-matchup on the boards.
Over the past ten games, the San Antonio Spurs rank dead last in the league in average rebounds allowed per game. In their most recent game against the Celtics, the Spurs allowed 61 total rebounds, which means they allowed 49 or more rebounds in four of their last five games. This bodes well for both Horton-Tucker and the Jazz, who rank second in rebounding percentage over the past ten games.
With the way the Spurs have been shooting it recently, Horton-Tucker should have plenty of opportunities to pull in defensive rebounds tonight. Between his minutes per game numbers increasing and the matchup, I think this is an excellent spot to target THT.
Talen Horton-Tucker Over 4.5 Rebounds (-145)