20.06.2023

Toronto Blue Jays @ Miami Marlins Game Preview and F5 Pick

With their win last night, the Miami Marlins have won five straight games, and with a win tonight, they can secure back-to-back series victories. We’ll preview tonight’s game before going over which team I’ll be targeting on the F5 run line.

Game Preview

The Blue Jays have had a rough go at it over their past ten games as they enter tonight 3-7 in that span and fresh off their second straight game in which they allowed 11 runs. In last night’s 11-0 loss, Toronto mustered up just seven hits while striking out ten times and leaving 15 runners on base. A Danny Jansen double was the only extra-base hit and offensive highlight the Blue Jays had all game.

On the mound, Jose Berrios could not carry over any momentum from his last start, as he lasted just four innings while allowing five earned runs on eight hits. With Toronto looking to snap a three-game losing streak, they will send lefty Yusei Kikuchi to the mound tonight. Kikuchi has turned in four straight starts in which he has allowed two earned runs which has his ERA sitting at 4.31 in 71 innings.

The Blue Jays left-hander will take on a Marlins lineup tonight that has scored four more runs in five straight games and recorded 19 hits in last night’s win. Jorge Soler provided the power with his 21st home run, while Luis Arreaz continued his push to be a .400 hitter by going 5-5 with two RBIs. By the end of the game, eight different Miami hitters recorded at least one RBI.

Miami’s offense isn’t the only part of the team playing at a high level right now, as their pitching staff has allowed two or fewer runs in four of their last five games, including last night’s shutout. Tonight it will be young pitching phenom Eury Pérez getting the start for the sixth time this season. Following his six-shutout inning performance in his last start, the right-hander is now boasting a 2.25 ERA with 24 strikeouts in 24 innings.

Pick for the Game

For my play in this one, I’ll be targeting the Marlins F5 run line of (-.5), which is priced at (+108). Miami is 7-3 ATS in the first five over their last ten games at home, while Toronto is 4-6 ATS in their last ten road games. The Marlins' offense has been phenomenal recently, and not only have they shown no signs of slowing down, but tonight they’ll face an ideal matchup by taking on a lefty starter.

Over the last month, the Marlins rank 10th in wOBA, 8th in wRC+, and 2nd in BAbip against left-handed pitching in their home ballpark. They are facing a starter in Yusei Kikuchi, who has struggled in road starts this season. The Toronto left-hander has a batting average against of .287 and a FIP of 6.23 when pitching on the road.

While Kikuchi struggles on the road, Eury Pérez has been excellent at home, as he is pitching to a 1.84 ERA with a .200 batting average against in LoanDepot Park. Pérez also has a .55 ERA the first time through the order and 1.23 the second time through, which is all we need for an F5 bet. The Blue Jays are also 13th in wRC+, wOBA, and OPS against right-handed pitching on the road since the start of June.