05.04.2023

Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals Game Preview and Prop Pick

After evening the series last night, the Blue Jays will look to win back-to-back games for the first time this season tonight in Kansas City. We’ll preview the game before reviewing my best prop play for the action.

Game Preview

Toronto was able to find the win column for the first time since Opening Day last night, and now they will turn to their ace Alek Manoah. The imposing right-hander struggled on Opening Day against the Cardinals as he allowed nine hits and five earned runs in just 3 ⅓ innings. Manoah picked up three strikeouts in the no-decision, but he also walked two batters and allowed two home runs, so he will be looking to bounce back tonight.

Offensively, the Blue Jays managed to score four runs last night, which marks the fourth game out of five this season in which they’ve scored four or more. Matt Chapman continued his red-hot start to the season last night by picking up three more hits, including his fifth double of the year. Newly acquired Dalton Varsho made big contributions last night as well, with his first home run in a Blue Jays uniform.

The Toronto offense will take on veteran Zach Greinke, who will be making his second start of the season. Greinke took the loss on Opening Day, but his numbers were fine as he went 5 ⅓ innings while striking out four and allowing just two earned runs. Last season, the right-hander had one start against Toronto, and he took the loss by allowing four runs (3 earned) on eight hits in just four innings of work.

Greinke will undoubtedly need more run support than he received on Opening Day since the Royals were shut out in that game. The Royals' offense was also held quiet last night despite putting up nine runs the night before. Only Franmil Reyes could contribute last night as he picked up his first home run of the season with a solo shot.

Prop Pick

For my prop play, I’ll be targeting George Spring over 1.5 total bases at (+105). The Blue Jays outfielder could not pick up a hit yesterday, but today he’ll face a pitcher he sees incredibly well in Zach Greinke. In 13 at-bats against him, Springer is hitting .539 with seven hits, including a home run.

In Greinke’s lone start against Toronto last season, Springer went 2-4 in the game, and I think he can find similar success this evening. Looking at last year's numbers, Greinke threw his fastball more than any other pitch at 38.4%, but opponents hit .299 against it for the season. Springer loves hitting the fastball, and last season, he hit .289 on the pitch, which sets him up nicely to hit the veteran righty.

Another positive is after struggling with breaking balls last season, Springer is already hitting .375 against them this season. This is important to note since, in his first start this year, Greinke threw 27.5% curveballs which was the most out of any pitch in his arsenal. Overall I think Springer sees the ball out of Greinke’s hand well and could find success today at the plate.