The AFC South division title and a trip to the playoffs are on the line Sunday night as the Titans will head to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars. We’ll preview the important matchup before getting into my favorite prop bet for the game.
Despite finding themselves one win away from the playoffs, this was not how the Titans envisioned their season going. Heading into a do-or-die weekend, the Titans are starting their third quarterback of the season and are on a six-game losing streak. Tennessee has only scored over 20 points one time in that six-game skid and is now ranked 30th in the league in yards per game.
The good news for the Titans is that Derrick Henry will be able to play and has historically dominated the Jaguars. In 12 career games against Jacksonville, Henry has rushed for 1,264 and 16 touchdowns. Tennessee is already averaging the 12th most rushing attempts per game so look for that number to increase this weekend.
Defensively the Titans have a one-dimensional unit, as they are one of the best run defenses in the league and one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. Tennessee is second in the league in rushing yards allowed and average yards per carry; however, they also allow the most passing yards a game.
In the last matchup between these two teams, the Titans allowed Trevor Lawrence to throw for 368 yards and three touchdowns. Lawrence and Jaguars scored 36 points in that game despite only having 60 rushing yards. That win over the Titans also started a four-game winning streak for the Jaguars that brought their record from 4-8 to 8-8 heading into this Saturday’s matchup.
The Jaguars' defense has only allowed a combined six points over the last two weeks; however, their opponents were the Texans and Jets. For the season, the Jags are ranked 12th in points allowed per game and 23rd in yards allowed per game, but their biggest focus this weekend will have to be figuring out how to stop Derrick Henry.
I’ll be targeting Jaguars tight-end Evan Engram as the focus of my prop bets for this game. Engram’s reception total is set at 4.5, and his receiving yards prop is set at 48.5, and I’ll be taking the over on both of those totals. In the first matchup between these two teams this season, Engram had 11 receptions for 162 yards, and although I’m not expecting those exact numbers, the Titans are one of the worst defenses when it comes to stopping tight ends.
Tennessee has allowed the fourth most receptions in the league to tight ends and leads the league in yards allowed to tight ends with 1,092. No team has allowed more targets to tight ends than the Titans, and I don’t expect that to change this weekend, with Engram being one of Trevor Lawrence’s most trusted targets.
Engram is also only 61 yards away from a 200k bonus in his contract, so it’s very likely Lawrence will try to get him over that total, like most quarterbacks due for their receivers with contract incentives. It’s a win-win for everybody as the Jaguars offense needs Engram to be successful, and in doing so, he will get paid, not to mention his prop bet bettors will, in turn, also get paid.
Evan Engram Over 4.5 Receptions (-117)
Evan Engram Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-130)