Texans @ Cowboys Game Preview and Pick: Value on Team Total

The struggling Houston Texans will make the short trip to Dallas this weekend to take on a Cowboys team that has won three in a row. We’ll preview the game along with a breakdown of why a team total bet is what you should be targeting this weekend.

Game Preview

The 1-10-1 Texans have lost seven games in a row and might as well start getting Bryce Young’s locker ready for next season. After making the switch to Kyle Allen at quarterback for the last two weeks, Houston announced they’ll be going back to Davis Mills as their starter this weekend.

Allen threw for four interceptions in the two games he was the starter, and last weekend the offense had four total turnovers, so it looks like Mills will finish out the season as the starter. Houston’s offense has not scored 20 or more points since Week 7, and in the last three weeks, they have struggled to get running back Dameon Pierce established despite him being their best offensive weapon.

Regardless of who is starting at quarterback, they will be in for a challenge against this Cowboys' defense that has been playing at a high level over the past three weeks. Dallas has allowed 20 or fewer points over their last three games, including a game in which they held the Vikings to only three points. This defense is second in the league in opponent’s passing yards per game, allowing an average of only 179.8 yards.

The Cowboys' offense has been equally as impressive recently, scoring 54 points last weekend and finding a lot of success with the running back duo of Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard. Dallas is averaging 1.6 rushing touchdowns a game which is second in the league.

Pollard and Elliot should be able to find success this weekend against a Texans defense that ranks dead last in the NFL in average rushing yards allowed per game with 169.1 yards.

Pick for the Game

I’m not the biggest fan of very high spreads in the NFL, and with the Cowboys favored by -17.5 points, I decided to look for value in this game elsewhere. I found that value with my pick for this game: the Cowboys Team Total Over 30.5. I think this Dallas offense will be able to find the endzone on the ground numerous times, and the Cowboys' defense could also find the end zone at some point.

Last weekend the Cowboys played against another lackluster defense, and they rushed for 220 yards and four touchdowns, well, this Texans' run defense is statistically worse than the Colts, so I’m expecting the same result. The Cowboys won’t just be able to find success on the ground either, Dak Prescott has thrown seven touchdown passes over the last three weeks and now takes on this Texans defense allowing 7.1 yards per pass.

Even if the Cowboys' defense can’t find the endzone, they should be able to create at least one turnover that sets up the offense with excellent field position. Houston turns the ball over an average of 1.7 times per game which is 30th in the league, and Dallas is creating 1.8 turnovers per game which is second in the league.


  • Dallas Cowboys Team Total Over 30.5 (-110)

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