A top-five scoring team in the New Orleans Pelicans will host a bottom-third defensive team Oklahoma City Thunder so we’ll go over where the point total sits right now and whether it’s the right bet to make.
From 7:42 AM ET to now the point total in this game has moved six different times on FanDuel Sportsbook and with that in mind, I think it’s wise to shop for the point total at 232 in this one and take the over. With the way the number has been moving I don’t expect it to go lower than 232, only a bit higher.
The over is 9-1 in the Thunder’s last 10 games and 11-4 on the season when they’re underdogs, I expect both trends to continue tonight in New Orleans. The Pelicans enter tonight with an offensive rating of 115 and are averaging 117.3 points per game while OKC is 29th in the NBA allowing 118.3 ppg.
Oklahoma City has really struggled to limit scoring in the paint allowing 53.2 points in the paint a game which plays into a major strength of the Pelicans who rank fifth in the league in that category. Not only can New Orleans dominate in the paint, but they are also shooting 38.2% from three, a top-five percentage in the league.
New Orleans won’t be the only one scoring at a high clip tonight though as the Thunder are scoring 116.6 a game this season. The Thunder run at the fourth-highest pace in the NBA so they get plenty of opportunities a game, and highly efficient opportunities at that. OKC leads the league in points in the paint a game this season.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has scored 30+ points in the last four games so if he can keep up that pace then this game should be filled with offensive fireworks and go over 232.
New Orleans has won six of their last ten games but enters tonight off a loss to the Grizzlies where they allowed 132 points to be scored. Trey Murphy was able to score 21 points off the bench in the losing effort so look for him to play a big factor in tonight’s game with the Thunder allowing 39.6 ppg to their opponent’s bench units.
It looks as if they’ll need all the bench players to step up big in this one as Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum will most likely not be able to play in tonight’s game.
The Thunder have gone 3-7 in their last 10 road games and recently lost by 13 to the five-win Houston Rockets. Outside of Gilgeous-Alexander the Thunder have gotten inconsistent scoring efforts from the rest of their starters. Lu Dort was only able to score three points in their last game so he’ll need to shoot it better in order to keep pace with the efficient shooting Pelicans.