06.09.2023

St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves Game Preview and Pick

After winning six straight games, the Atlanta Braves have now lost two in a row following their loss yesterday to the Cardinals. The last time Atlanta lost two straight, they followed it up with a four-game win streak, and we’ll preview their game tonight before going over our play on their F5 team total.

Game Preview

While it has been a long and frustrating season for the St. Louis Cardinals, there must be some optimism surrounding the team’s future based on their young guys. Their immense talent was on display last night, with Nolan Gorman hitting two home runs and Jordan Walker going 3-4 with a home run of his own. The duo had five of the team’s 12 hits and drove in five of the team’s ten runs on the way to their 10-6 series-opening win.

With a chance to steal the series tonight, St. Louis will send Dakota Hudson to the mound for his 8th start of the year. Hudson is fresh off a stellar start against the Pirates, but he has nothing to show for it, as he took a no-decision after throwing seven innings and allowing one run on three hits. Following that start, the right-hander is now pitching to a 4.02 ERA in 56 innings of work.

Hudson will now have the toughest start of his season, taking on a Braves lineup that has guided them to the best record in baseball. In their loss last night, Atlanta still came up with 11 hits, and six of them went for extra bases. Despite hitting four home runs, all of which were solo shots, the Braves offense could not make up for the rough start from Mike Soroka and bad relief appearance from Collin McHugh.

In order to even the series, Atlanta will need a better pitching performance tonight, and they have the right man on the mound for in Spencer Strider. The Braves ace has picked up a win in his last four outings, but the Dodgers lineup did get to him in his most recent start, as he allowed four earned runs over six innings, the most earned runs he had allowed since August 7th.

Pick for the Game

The Atlanta Braves F5 team total is currently set at 3.5, and I’ll be taking the over priced at (+110) for my play. The F5 team total over is 23-14 in the Braves last 37 games, and they have the ideal matchup on the mound to improve that record tonight. Dakota Hudson has the numbers you want to see as a Braves fan or backer and numbers that haunt you if you’re a Cardinals fan or under backer.

Hudson enters this matchup in the 21st percentile in expected batting average, 18th percentile in xERA, and 17th percentile in hard-hit percentage. On top of that, the right-hander also has a 7.58 FIP and .290 batting average against on the road this season, so not only does he have bad expected numbers, but he has struggled on opposing mounds.

Tonight, Hudson will take on a Braves lineup that is hitting .268 and ranks 7th in wRC+, 5th in wOBA, and 4th in OPS against right-handed pitching at home over the past month. Atlanta also has the third-highest hard-hit percentage in that split at 41.1%, which makes sense considering they are averaging 3.75 runs per game in the first five innings at home this season.