It’s not often the primetime NFL game is hosted at the same stadium on back-to-back nights, but that is the case this weekend, as Metlife workers will need to switch the stadium from the Jets logos to the Giants. With their last game coming on Thursday night in week three, the Giants will be well rested when they play host to the Seahawks tonight, and we’ll preview the game before going over my two prop plays for the action.
After shaking the rust off in week one, the Seahawks offense has been firing on all cylinders the past two weekends. Their 13-point performance against the Rams seemed to act as a final tune-up since they have responded by scoring 37 points in each of their last two games. In their 37-27 win over the Panthers last weekend, Seattle finished with 425 yards of total offense and a (10.21) offensive EPA.
Kenneth Walker III and DK Metcalf would lead a well-balanced offensive attack in the winning effort, with Walker III picking up 156 total yards and two touchdowns, while Metcalf pulled in six catches for 112 yards. Seattle needed every yard they could get since their defense was putting up a negative EPA for the third straight week at (-6.08).
Coming off a game against the 49ers, the Giants' offense could use a game against a struggling defense. In their 30-12 loss last Thursday, New York put up just 150 yards of total offense, as their running game could only muster up 29 yards on 11 carries in the absence of Saquon Barkley. New York’s primary back is doubtful again this week, and the Giants left tackle, Andrew Thomas, will not be playing, which leaves Daniel Jones a shorthanded offense to operate.
Jones followed up his impressive comeback over the Cardinals by going 22-32 for 137 yards and an interception against the 49ers. While Jones has yet to live up to the contract he was given in the offseason, the Giants defense has severely underperformed this season as well. Through three weeks, New York’s defense ranks 31st in sack percentage, 28th in rushing yards allowed, and 26th in yards allowed per pass.
For my first play in this game, I’ll be targeting Darren Waller to go over 47.5 receiving yards at (-130). New York’s big offseason acquisition has yet to have a breakout game with the team, but according to FantasyPros, he still has the 6th highest target share among tight ends at 20.8%.
While Waller has only exceeded tonight’s total in one game, his average of 6.7 targets per game and 26.2% air-yard share put him in an excellent spot to have a nice night against a lackluster Seattle defense. The Seahawks' secondary allows the highest yards per reception average to tight ends and an average of 328 passing yards per game, which ranks 32nd in the league.
The Giants' offense is already 6th in pass play percentage this season, and if Barkley can’t play again, it will be up to Daniel Jones to make plays with his arm. Between New York needing to rely more on the passing game and Seattle coming off a game with a (-10.98) EPA on pass plays, I think Waller could be due for his best game in a Giants uniform.
My second prop play will be centered around Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III, as I’ll be targeting him to go over his longest rush prop of 15.5 at (-125). Over his last ten games, Walker’s longest rush average is 24.33 yards, and he is coming off a game in which he broke a 36-yarder.
Walker III has the 4th most broken tackles and ranks 13th in yards after contact per attempt, so he is a tough matchup for a Giants defense that ranks 18th in yards after contact per attempt, according to FantasyPros. With New York allowing an average of 138 rush yards per game and Walker III averaging 15.67 attempts per game, I think there is a good chance we'll see him break a long run tonight.
Darren Waller Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-130)
Kenneth Walker III Longest Rush Over 15.5 Yards (-125)