05.07.2023

Seattle Mariners @ San Francisco Giants Game Preview and Pick

The NL West is a brutal division to play in, as one stretch of bad play could result in a major fall in the standings. The San Francisco Giants are in the midst of one of those stretches as they are 3-7 over their past ten games and are at risk of being swept by the Mariners tonight with a loss. We’ll preview the game before going over why I’ll be targeting a team total bet.

Game Preview

After losing a late-inning heartbreaker in game one of this series, the Giants turned around and were nonexistent at the plate and on the mound in yesterday's 6-0 loss. Mariners starter Logan Gilbert dominated the Giants lineup from the first pitch of the game to the last, as he threw a complete game shutout with seven strikeouts. San Francisco managed just five hits in the game, with only one going for extra bases.

With a potential sweep looming, the Giants will have Alex Cobb on the mound tonight as the team looks to avoid allowing six or more runs for the third straight game. Cobb has produced solid numbers this season across his 15 starts, with the right-hander pitching to a 3.12 ERA with 79 strikeouts and 21 walks. The right-hander took a no-decision his last time on the mound against the Mets, as he allowed three runs (two earned) in five innings.

Cobb will face a Mariners lineup tonight that has put up 12 runs this series on 23 hits. Seattle picked up 13 hits in yesterday’s win, with Mike Ford having the biggest day at the dish, going 4-5 with two doubles and a home run. The rest of the Mariners' offense came from Julio Rodriguez, Jarred Kelenic, and AJ Pollock, who also left the yard with a two-run shot.

Seattle certainly doesn’t need to worry about their bullpen being rested today since they got an unexpected off day yesterday. Before they are needed tonight, the Mariners will have lefty Tommy Milone on the mound for the start. Tonight will be the veteran’s first appearance since April 14th, as he has spent most of his season in Triple-A, where he has pitched to a 4.47 ERA in 50.1 innings of work.

Pick for the Game

The San Francisco Giants team total is currently set at 4.5, and I’ll be taking the under for my play which is priced at (-118). Over the past ten games, the Giants have gone under this total in seven of them. The Giants are struggling with consistency at the plate, but the one matchup they have struggled with the most is with left-handed pitching.

San Francisco is hitting .188 with a .559 OPS against left-handed pitching at home over the last month. On a more advanced level, the Giants rank 30th in wRC+ and wOBA while also sporting the highest strikeout percentage in the league in this spot. Seattle doesn’t need a long start from Milone since they have a rested bullpen, so as long as the veteran can pitch close to his batting average against in Triple-A of .232, they should be in a good spot.

Over the past month, the Mariners bullpen ranks 8th in xFIP and 12th in strikeout percentage. Those numbers, combined with the fact that San Francisco is averaging 1.64 runs per game over the last four innings at home, have it looking like another slow day the dish for the Giants.