12.05.2023

Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers Game Preview and Pick

The Mariners and Tigers have both gone 7-3 over their past ten games and are fresh off a rest day, as they are set to meet tonight in Detroit to start a three-game series. We’ll preview tonight’s game before going over why I’ll be targeting a team total for my play in this one.

Game Preview

Seattle did not get off to the start everyone had expected, and despite going 7-3 over their last ten games, they will enter this weekend off a series loss to the Rangers. The Mariners had the chance to win the series on Wednesday, but they could not scratch across more than three runs as they lost 4-3. Even with the one-run loss, the Mariners were outhit 13-7 in the game as they struck out 11 times, three of which came from struggling outfielder Teoscar Hernandez.

To get tonight’s series started, the Mariners will hand the ball to lefty Marco Gonzales to make his seventh start of the year. In 30.7 innings of work, Gonzales has pitched to a 4.70 ERA with 23 strikeouts and 11 walks. Gonzales gave Seattle six innings in his most recent outing against the Astros, as he struck out four and allowed three earned runs in the no-decision.

The left-hander will face a Tigers lineup that has been swinging it well as of late, scoring five or more runs in seven of their last ten games. Detroit will enter this weekend off a series win over the Guardians, as they got a dominant performance from Eduardo Rodriguez in their 5-0 win on Wednesday. The young trio of Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene, and Akil Baddoo all picked up RBIs in the win as well.

On the mound tonight for Detroit will be veteran lefty Matthew Boyd. In six starts and 30.7 innings, the lefty has a 5.28 ERA with 28 strikeouts and 11 walks. Boyd picked up the win in his most recent outing against the Cardinals, as he went six innings with six strikeouts and three earned runs allowed.

Pick for the Game

The Mariners team total for the first five innings is set at 2.5, and I’ll be taking the under for my play in this one. Seattle is hitting .193 against lefties this season and .221 in road games, so they face a tough matchup to begin the series. The Mariners are averaging 2.4 runs per game in the first five innings on the road entering tonight, and over their past three games overall, they are averaging 1.67 per game.

Over their past three games, the Tigers have allowed an average of one run over the first five innings, and Boyd has produced solid advanced numbers this season to keep this trend going. The lefty is currently in the 85th percentile in hard-hit percentage, 54th percentile in barrel percentage, and 60th percentile in expected batting average.

Eight of the Mariners have at-bats against Boyd, and in those 51 total plate appearances, they have struck out 15 times and picked up 14 hits. Boyd has an expected batting average allowed against those hitters of .223, so between him being a lefty and the slow starts Seattle has gotten off to, I expect a low-scoring start to this game.