13.09.2023

San Jose State Spartans @ Toledo Rockets Game Preview and Pick

If you’re a football fan who loves high-scoring games, then may I introduce you to the San Jose State Spartans. Through three games this season, points have come in bunches when SJSU is on the field, and this weekend, they will head to Ohio to take on a Toledo Rockets team that is no stranger to high-scoring games themselves.

Game Preview

After opening with two straight tough Pac-12 opponents in USC and Oregon State, the Spartans of San Jose State finally played host to a lesser opponent over the weekend when they hosted Cal Poly. The Spartans had been embarrassed on their home field the week prior by Oregon State, but they made it up to their fans on Saturday by beating Cal Poly 59-3.

The Spartans showed some signs of an impressive offense in week zero against USC, but it was fully on display over the weekend. In their 56-point blowout win, the Spartans racked up 472 total yards, with quarterback Chevan Cordeiro throwing for 205 yards and two touchdowns and running back Kairee Robinson rushing for 124 yards and two touchdowns.

While the offense was imposing their will through the air and on the ground, the Spartans' defense enjoyed their first game against a weaker offensive opponent. SJSU was able to force three turnovers and hold the Mustangs to under 100 passing and rushing yards. With the dominant win behind them, the Spartans are back on the road to take on another high-powered offense led by quarterback DeQuan Finn.

Finn and the Toldeo offense took Illinois to the wire in week one before falling by two points, but in their first home game of the season, the Rockets offense showed just how explosive they can be. Playing host to Texas Southern, the Rockets put on an offensive clinic that resulted in Finn throwing for 232 yards and two touchdowns and the Rockets winning 71-3.

Toledo finished the game with five rushing and five passing touchdowns, while their defense was able to rack up five sacks. Through two games, the Rockets' defense has also forced three turnovers, but their EPA on defense is still ranked 103rd in the country, according to CFB Graphs.

Pick for the Game

The point total for this game is currently set at 58.5, and I’ll be taking the over for my play. The over is 5-0 in games played by these teams this season, and I don’t trust either defense to get stops consistently. As I mentioned before, Toledo is 103rd in the country in EPA on defense, and the Spartans rank even lower at 121st.

To get more specific, SJSU also ranks 114th in EPA per pass play and run play on defense, which is a significant problem for them going up against a Toledo offense that is 24th in offensive success rate and 29th in EPA per rush play. Elite-level quarterbacks have shredded the Spartans' secondary early this season, and DeQuan Finn has proven to have those capabilities.

Chevan Cordeiro can certainly hold his own as well, and he gets to face a Toledo defense that is 101st in EPA per pass play and 102nd in defensive success rate. Behind Cordeiro is a freshman running back in Quali Conley, who put up 108 yards in six carries against USC and rushed for two touchdowns last weekend. Both players should be able to continue their success this weekend, especially since Toledo is 118th in defensive success rate on rush plays.