22.05.2023

San Francisco Giants @ Minnesota Twins Game Preview and Pick

With their win yesterday, the San Francisco Giants secured their second straight series win. Tonight the Giants will be in Minnesota to start an interleague series with the Twins, and we’ll preview the game before going over which side I’ll be backing in this one.

Game Preview

It was a less-than-ideal west coast trip for the Minnesota Twins as they lost two straight series to the Dodgers and Angels, culminating in yesterday’s 4-2 loss. Minnesota got a strong start from Pablo Lopez as he struck out nine over six innings of work. Still, the two earned runs he allowed, followed by the two earned runs by the bullpen, were too much for the Twins' offense to overcome, especially since they were facing Shohei Ohtani.

In the hopes of starting this series on a stronger note, the Twins will hand the ball to righty Bailey Ober to make his sixth start. In 30.3 innings of work, Ober has pitched to a 1.78 ERA with 28 strikeouts and seven walks. The right-hander provided the Twins with one of their two wins over the west coast trip, as he went six innings with six strikeouts and one earned run allowed against the Dodgers.

Ober will face a Giants lineup that put up seven runs in yesterday’s win and won the game despite being outhit by Miami. Patrick Bailey, who was called up at the start of their series against Miami, left the yard for his first career home run yesterday, while J.D Davis also left the yard to drive in two runs.

Starting on the mound for San Francisco tonight will be John Brebbia, who will likely be more of an opener since he has two relief appearances against the Marlins. Brebbia has made two starts this season, but they have been short starts as he has thrown most of his 19 innings out of relief. Across those 19 innings, Brebbia has pitched to a 4.26 ERA with 28 strikeouts and seven walks.

Pick for the Game

The Twins are currently priced at (-143) on the moneyline, and I’ll be backing them for my play in this one. Minnesota is 4-1 in their last five games following a loss and in their previous five home games, and today they face a Giants team that is 1-8 in their last nine road games against a righty starter. The Giants' pitching plan for today is still undetermined, but Minnesota has hit well at home this season, and Ober has been solid to start the year.

Entering tonight, Ober is in the 73rd percentile in hard hit percentage, 59th percentile in strikeout percentage, and 67th percentile in expected batting average, so he poses as a tough matchup for a Giants lineup hitting .242 against righties on the road. Ober also sits in the 85th percentile in chase rate, which matches up well since San Francisco has the second-highest strikeout percentage against righty pitching on the road.

Even if Brebbia throws three innings or less tonight, I still trust the Twins lineup to get the job done at home. Minnesota is 4th in wRC+, BAbip, and wOBA against right-handed pitching at home this season. San Francisco’s bullpen also has the third-highest ERA in the majors, so even if they roll out a long reliever, I think Minnesota has the advantage.