07.08.2023

San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Angels Game Preview and Pick

Since deciding to make a run for the postseason and buying at the deadline, the Los Angeles Angels have not won a game. After getting swept by the Mariners yesterday, the Angels will now host the Giants for a three-game series. With their hopes of the Wild Card slipping away by the day, the importance of this series cannot be understated, and we’ll preview the opening game before going over my play for the first five innings.

Game Preview

The NL Wild Card race has been nothing short of exciting, and sitting at the top of the race at the moment is the San Francisco Giants. Now is not the time to get comfortable, however, as plenty of teams are heating up and within striking distance of them. One thing that can’t happen amid a playoff push is dropping games to bad teams, and the Giants did that this weekend. With their 8-6 loss yesterday, San Francisco dropped their second straight game to the A’s.

Despite the Giants having five different players record an RBI, the offense was unable to stay in the game due to a bad start from Alex Cobb and two lackluster bullpen outings. It will be up to Logan Webb to get the team back into the win column, as he is set to make his 24th start of the season. The right-hander is fresh off an outing in which he recorded his 9th win of the year by throwing seven innings and allowing just two earned runs.

Tonight, Webb will battle with an Angels offense that only produced in one of the four games they lost to the Seattle Mariners. Over the series' final two games, the Angels recorded just four total runs, two of which came yesterday in their 3-2 loss. The Angels went down on strikes 15 times in the loss, as the only offense they got came from a Matt Thaiss home run and Mike Moustakas RBI double.

Los Angeles is still on the hunt for their first win in August, and looking to lead them to that tonight, will be left-hander Patrick Sandoval. Despite only allowing three hits in his most recent outing, the lefty came away with the loss as he left the game after five innings with two earned runs allowed.

Pick for the Game

The total for the first five innings of this inter-league and interstate matchup is currently set at 4.5, and I’ll be taking the under for my play. For the Giants, their F5 team total under in their past 58 games has an ROI of 27%, while the Angels' F5 team total under in their last 52 home games has an ROI of 11%. The Angels are also throwing a lefty tonight, which has been a nightmare sentence for the Giants lineup recently.

Since July 7th, the Giants' offense is .154 against left-handed pitching on the road. This means they are ranked 30th in OPS, wOBA, wRC+, and SLG in that span in this situation. Their matchup, Patrick Sandoval, is in the 74th percentile in hard hit percentage and pitched to a 2.08 ERA in July, so it could be a rough first half of the game for the San Fran offense.

For an Angels team that is winless over their last six games, having to face Logan Webb tonight is a real when it rains, it pours scenario. The Giants ace is in the 72nd percentile in xERA/xwOBA and has a 3.22 xFIP on the road this season, so he is a brutal matchup for an Angels offense that is hitting .224 with a 28% strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching at home over the last seven days.