13.09.2023

San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers Game Preview and Prop Pick

There are plenty of ways to describe the San Diego Padres season, but aside from disappointment, one of the most common descriptions is inconsistent. After opening their series with the Dodgers on a high note, the Padres pitching staff and lineup didn’t show up yesterday, which means they are one day closer to vacation instead of the postseason. We’ll preview the rubber match of this NL West series before going over which prop market I’ll be targeting.

Game Preview

In game one of this series, both offenses looked unstoppable, which resulted in a combined 19 runs to be scored. Yesterday, it was just the Dodgers offense that caused the game to be high-scoring. In their 11-2 win, LA picked up 11 hits and had seven players record at least one RBI. While it was a team effort, Freddie Freeman continued his MVP-caliber play by going 4-5 with a double, home run, and two RBIs. Will Smith also had a big day at the plate with a home run and three RBIs.

Closing out the series on the mound for Los Angeles will be young right-hander Ryan Pepiot. The former Butler Bulldog didn’t join the Dodgers pitching staff until late August, but he has been phenomenal since. In both starts he’s made, Pepiot has picked up a win in each of them; in fact, he has not allowed an earned run in either of them. During his most recent start, the right-hander spun seven shutout innings with one hit allowed against the Marlins.

Pepiot matches up with a Padres lineup that continued their Jekyll and Hyde routine last night by scoring two runs after scoring 11 the night before. Taking on a struggling Lance Lynn, the Padres managed just five hits and left 14 runners on base, with their biggest offensive highlight being a Fernando Tatis Jr. solo home run.

Getting the ball for San Diego in the rubber match is potential CY Young Blake Snell. The lefty is fresh off his third straight win, a six-inning performance against the Astros in which he allowed two earned runs and struck out eight. Snell seems to be the one pitcher that walks don’t affect in a big way, as he is averaging four walks and 1.4 earned runs over his last ten starts.

Prop Pick

Blake Snell’s outs recorded total is currently set at 16.5, and I’ll be taking the over, which is priced at (-105) for my play. Snell is averaging 17.4 outs per game over his last ten outings and has exceeded tonight’s total in six straight games. While his high walk rate is always a concern when betting on this specific prop, the fact that LA has a low strikeout rate helps over backers since it might even out his pitch count a bit.

The Dodgers did knock Snell out of the game in five innings the last time he faced them, but LA’s numbers against lefties have worsened since that outing. Over the past month, the Dodgers lineup ranks 23rd in wOBA, 19th in wRC+, and 17th in OPS against lefties at home. Those numbers won’t get it done against Snell, who is in the 82nd percentile in expected batting average.

Even if the Dodgers stack righties tonight, Snell should still be able to get outs as he has a .192 batting average against and 3.75 xFIP when facing righties on the road this season. The first time Snell faced the Dodgers on the road this season, he had four strikeouts and four walks but still managed to pick up 18 outs, and I think he’ll have a similar stat line tonight.