31.07.2023

San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies Game Preview and Prop Pick

After avoiding getting swept by the A’s yesterday afternoon with a win, the Colorado Rockies decided it was time to begin their trade deadline selling as they parted ways with both Randal Grichuk and C.J Cron in a deal with the Angels. Colorado and their new-look offense will now play host to the Padres for a three-game series, and we’ll preview the first game before going over which prop market I’ll be targeting.

Game Preview

One of the biggest mysteries of this trade deadline is what the San Diego Padres will decide to do. In typical Padres fashion, some people were prepared for them to sell a few pieces after they lost a series to the Pirates, but after sweeping the Rangers this past weekend, the situation is even more complicated. With their 5-3 win yesterday, San Diego secured a sweep, as Gary Sanchez led the way in the game with two home runs.

Blake Snell was able to come away with the win in yesterday’s game, extending his stretch of impressive play and making the decision on whether or not to trade him even more difficult. With the team looking to win their fourth straight game, the Padres will have Seth Lugo on the mound for his 16th start. The veteran right-hander turned in a quality start in his last outing with seven innings and two earned runs allowed but still ended up with the loss.

The Rockies lineup that Lugo will face tonight will look different than it did in their 2-0 win yesterday afternoon now that Grichuk and Cron are no longer on the team. For now, one veteran name that remains in the Colorado lineup is Ryan McMahon, and he was the sole provider of offense in yesterday’s win, driving in two runs which brought his RBI total up to 50.

Getting the ball for the Rockies tonight is left-hander Austin Gomber. In 21 starts, Gomber is pitching to a 5.83 ERA with 72 strikeouts and 30 walks. The lefty has been a more reliable arm for Colorado since the start of July, however, as he is 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA in 24 innings and has yet to issue a walk across his four starts.

Prop Pick

There is no denying that Austin Gomber has been able to provide Colorado with better starts over the past couple of weeks, and with that, the lefty has been able to consistently work deeper into games. With that said, my play for this game is Gomber to go over his outs recorded total of 15.5, which is priced at (+110). Over his last ten starts, the lefty is averaging 16.2 outs per game and has gone over tonight’s total in five straight outings.

Even though the Padres are coming off a big series sweep over the Rangers, they have recently struggled with left-handed pitching on the road. Over the past month, the Padres rank 19th in wRC+ and wOBA and 18th in OPS against left-handed pitching on the road, so the opportunity for Gomber to continue his strong month is present tonight.

The improvement in command is a big reason why Gomber has been able to work deeper into games, as his walk percentage has decreased every month this season. If you look at Gomber’s last ten starts, the average amount of pitches he was throwing per inning was 19 in the first five of those starts, but in his last five outings, he is averaging 13.78 pitches per inning.