31.03.2023

San Antonio Spurs @ Golden State Warriors Game Preview and Prop Pick

The game with the highest point spread of the night belongs to the Spurs and Warriors, with Golden State currently listed as -18 point home favorites. The last time these teams met in January, the spread was -9 in favor of the Warriors, so the tanking on San Antonio’s end has gotten bad enough to cause that number to double. We’ll preview the game before going over my best prop play for the action.

Game Preview

Only two teams in the league have a worse record than the Spurs over the past ten games, and in that span, San Antonio still ranks 29th in NET rating at (-13.9). The Spurs are currently amid a five-game losing streak and have been allowing points at a rate that is even impressive for a team that is tanking.

Across their losing streak, San Antonio has allowed 119 or more points in all five games and is fresh off a loss to the Jazz in which they allowed 128. Utah shot 54% from the field against the Spurs, with Talen Horton-Tucker scoring a career-high 41 points. On average, over their last ten games, opponents are shooting 50.7% from the field against San Antonio, which is the third-highest percentage in the league.

Knowing those numbers, Steph Curry and Klay Thompson might be getting to the arena tonight with the same urgency as a playoff game. Tonight will be the last day of a four-game home stand for Golden State, and they’ll be coming into tonight off a 120-109 win over the Pelicans on Tuesday. Behind Steph Curry’s 39 points, the Warriors shot 52% from the field and 45% from three.

Over their last ten games, the Warriors have gone 6-4 while ranking 11th in NET rating in that span. Although it has not been like this for most of the season, the Warriors currently rank higher in defensive efficiency than they do in offensive efficiency in that span. Based on the Spurs' recent offensive output, that may remain the case after tonight.

Prop Pick

For my prop play in this one, I’ll be targeting Donte DiVincenzo over 3.5 rebounds at (-117). Over the past ten games, DiVincenzo is averaging 4.3 rebounds per game, and he will enter tonight after pulling down seven against a strong rebounding team in the New Orleans Pelicans. He is in for a much more favorable tonight against a Spurs team with an extensive injury report.

No team in the NBA has allowed more rebounds per game than the San Antonio Spurs, as they are allowing an average of 50.4 per game. The Spurs have been outrebounded in every game of their current losing streak and just recently allowed eight players from the Jazz to pull down four or more rebounds in the game.

When these teams last met back in January, the Warriors had 55 rebounds, and DiVincenzo was able to come up with seven of them. With the way San Antonio has been shooting recently, there should be plenty of chances for DiVincenzo to rack up the boards tonight, so I think this is a more than ideal spot to target him in.