28.04.2023

Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors Game Preview and 1H Pick

The Golden State Warriors finally proved they can win a game on the road in game five, as they now have the opportunity to close the series out back at home. We’ll go over my first half play for the game before going over what to watch for in tonight’s pivotal game six.

1H Pick

The Golden State Warriors are listed as (-4) point favorites in the first half for game six, and I’ll be backing them for my play. Golden State has the better 1H NET rating in this series at (4.1), and they will be back at home in a close-out game. With Steve Kerr at the helm, Golden State is 4-0 in close-out games played at home, and in his career, Steph Curry is 21-11 in close-out games.

In the three games played in Oakland this series, the Warriors have a 1H true shooting percentage of 56.4% and an effective field goal percentage of 52.7%. On the other side, Sacramento’s respective percentages in those categories were 49.6% and 49.5% in those three games.

A big reason for the gap is Golden State’s ball movement when playing at home has been phenomenal, as their 78% 1H assist percentage at home is the best amongst playoff teams, while Sacramento’s assist percentage on the road in the first half sits at 50%.

Both sides struggled from three in game five, but with Golden State returning home, I think we’ll see an increase in those numbers. The Warriors shot 38.6% from deep in the first half of all three games they played at home this series as opposed to 34.4% on the road. The Kings shot 31.8% from three in those three games at Golden State, and after a hot start in game five, it looked as if De’Aaron Fox’s finger injury might be causing some struggles with shooting consistency.

Golden State is 3-2 ATS in the first half so far in this series, and with the opportunity to end this series at home tonight, I see them coming out aggressive and efficient to start the game.

What to Watch for Tonight

One of the biggest questions heading into tonight is whether or not Sacramento can stay consistent after their early first-quarter scoring push. The Kings have come out playing aggressively from the tip, and in each game, especially game five, they look like they're not going to miss the rest of the night. For some reason, though, that level of play disappears for a bit, and guys like Keegan Murray, who started the game red-hot from deep only end up with five shot attempts at the end of the game.

Golden State has always seemed to be able to do just enough to keep themselves in the game while Sacramento is on one of their scoring outbursts, but the minute they slow down just a little, the Warriors go on a run of their own.

The first half of game five is the perfect example, with Sacramento scoring 36 in the first quarter to 20 points in the second quarter. Golden State was down by three after the first quarter, but they still shot 61.9% from the field, which allowed them to stay within striking distance and take advantage of Sacramento shooting 36.4% in the second quarter.