After going through a rough patch in the season, the Phoenix Suns have gone 6-4 in their last ten games, and tonight they will host the Toronto Raptors. We’ll preview the game before breaking down my best prop play for the action.
The last time the Phoenix Suns record was a game above .500 was January 4th, but after their overtime win on Saturday night, the Suns are back above .500 with a 26-25 record. Phoenix needed overtime to put away the San Antonio Spurs, but behind Chris Paul’s 31 points and 11 assists, they were able to secure the victory on the road.
During the Suns' recent 6-4 stretch, they have primarily relied on their defense to get the job done and close out games. In that span, the Suns' defensive efficiency rating of 111.7 is the 6th best in the league, and they have held opponents to a 45.9% field goal percentage.
What’s even more impressive about going 6-4 in their last ten is how they were able to come up with six wins despite having an offensive efficiency rating that ranked 27th during that stretch. Phoenix has struggled with offense this season in general, but shooting 45.2% from the field in their last ten games will make sustaining these winning stretches even more difficult.
Phoenix does have a favorable match-up tonight to carry their offensive momentum from last game since the Raptors rank 20th in defensive efficiency over the past ten games. Toronto is 25th in the league in opponent field goal percentage and 27th in three-point percentage in that span, so the opportunity for Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson will be there tonight.
Toronto has been much better on the offensive end of the floor recently, ranking 5th in offensive efficiency over the past ten games. In that stretch, 47.5% of the Raptors' scoring comes from inside the paint, which gives them an advantage tonight against a Suns team that is 19th in opponent paint scoring over the past ten games.
For my prop play in this one, I’ll be targeting Scottie Barnes over 6.5 rebounds at (-115). The Raptors forward is fresh off a ten-rebound performance and is averaging 7.9 rebounds per game over his last ten games. If Barnes total were set at 6.5 for every game over the past ten, he would’ve gone over it in seven of them, so getting him at this number is a big reason to target him tonight.
Another big reason this is a favorable match-up for Barnes is that over the last five games, the Phoenix Suns are allowing an average of 47.2 rebounds per game, which is the third most in the league. In two of the Suns' last five games, they have allowed 50 total rebounds to be hauled in by their opponent, which is perfect for a Raptors team that is third in the league in offensive rebounding percentage.
Barnes had four offensive rebounds alone in the Raptors' most recent game, so he should be able to find success on the boards on both ends of the floor tonight. Between the ideal number and the Suns' recent rebounding struggles, Barnes is in an excellent spot to go over his total tonight.
Scottie Barnes Over 6.5 Rebounds (-115)