Week 15 wraps up tonight in Green Bay, with the Packers hosting the Los Angeles Rams. A little over a week after Baker Mayfield led an improbable comeback in his first game in a Rams uniform, the team is back in the primetime spotlight. We’ll be going over my bet on the spread along with a prop bet I think has a lot of value.
Opinions on Baker Mayfield are not hard to come by, and that’s only been amplified within the last few weeks. I’ve always been a firm supporter of the Mayfield camp so last week's miraculous comeback, along with the overall situation, was a solid victory in what’s been an overall rough season.
With that being said, what I saw at the end of the game last week was a Rams team that showed a sign of life for the first time since the Cooper Kupp injury. Even with their win over the now 3-11 Chicago Bears, I don’t think the Packers should be getting eight points in this one. Green Bay has only managed to average 20.2 points per game which is 22nd in the league, and they only possess one win over a team with a winning record.
The Packers are 3-7 ATS in their last ten games and 1-4 ATS in their previous five home games. Green Bay’s defense has allowed just as many passing touchdowns (18) as the Rams' defense despite the Rams being 22nd in passing yards allowed per game and the Packers being ranked third.
The Rams' defense also has the ability to limit the run, which is vital since the Packers are averaging 4.9 yards per carry, best for seventh in the league. Los Angeles has allowed only eight rushing touchdowns this season which is third in the league.
Green Bay may be ranked third in passing yards a game, but they have also faced the least amount of pass attempts per game in the league. The Packers' defense has actually allowed 250 or more passing yards in three of their last four games, so Mayfield should be able to find success in play action much like he did last week.
My favorite prop play of the night is Aaron Jones Under 59.5 rushing yards at (-115). The Packers running back has gone under his total in four of the last five games and will now face this Rams' rush defense that allows just 101.9 rushing yards a game which is fourth in the league. Los Angeles also allows the fourth-lowest yards-per-carry average this season.
Green Bay is averaging just 25.8 rushes per game which is 19th in the league, and Jones has seen a decrease in carries in the last three weeks. In the Packers' previous game, Jones only got nine rushing attempts and went for 26 yards against a Bears defense that has allowed the fifth most rushing yards in the NFL this season. The Packers other running back, AJ Dillon, took the bulk of the carries with 18.
The Rams' defense has the ability to limit the Packers' run game, especially Jones since they run a two-running back system. If the Rams' offense can put pressure on the Packers, they will likely rely heavily on the pass for the majority of the game.
Aaron Jones Under 59.5 Rushing Yards (-115)