31.05.2023

Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants Game Preview and Pitcher Prop Pick

Over the past ten games, the Giants are 7-3, while the Pirates are 3-7, but this afternoon they will meet in the rubber match of their three-game series. We’ll preview the game before going over which starting pitcher prop I’ll be targeting in this one.

Game Preview

After a combined 18 runs were scored in game one of this series, the Pirates came back and won a pitcher's duel last night with a final score of 2-1. Johan Oviedo struck out five over 4 ⅓ innings while allowing one earned run, and when he left, the Pirates bullpen threw 4 ⅔ shutout innings with just two hits allowed. A Connor Joe home run and a run off a wild pitch were all Pittsburgh needed to come away with the much-needed win.

Not only did they win last night, but now the Pirates will be able to send out their ace Mitch Keller for the series' final game. The right-hander has been flat-out dominant this season with a 3.01 ERA in 68.7 innings, along with 85 strikeouts and 16 walks. Keller got a win in his most recent outing despite allowing six earned runs in six innings, but he is still averaging just 1.9 earned runs allowed over his last ten starts.

Tonight, Keller will face a Giants lineup that scored just one run off a Michael Conforto RBI last night. San Francisco finished the game with five hits and 24 runners left on base. Usually, the old saying is “Walks will kill you,” but the Giants could not take advantage of being walked seven times in the game.

As they look to still win the series, the Giants will have Alex Wood on the mound tonight. The lefty has made six starts and thrown 25.7 innings, with a 3.51 ERA and 26 strikeouts to go with 13 walks. Wood is off his longest outing of the season, as he went 5 ⅔ innings with five strikeouts and one earned run allowed, which gave him the win over the Brewers.

Prop Pick

Mitch Keller has been making significant strides over the past few years, and it looks as if they have all come together to make him a true ace. The righty has become a staple on Pitching Ninja on Twitter for his elite stuff, and he is showing no signs of slowing down. With that said, I’ll be taking the over on his strikeout prop of 6.5, which is priced at (-134).

I was surprised to see a good price on this with how he’s been throwing, but I’ll certainly take it. Keller is averaging 7.73 strikeouts per game this season and has exceeded six punchouts in eight of his last ten starts, including six straight entering tonight. The Giants have a 21.1% strikeout percentage against righties at home this month, and the last time they faced a high-level starter in Corbin Burnes on May 27th, they struck out eight times.

Keller has 47 strikeouts in 35.2 innings on the road this season and currently sits in the 87th percentile in strikeout percentage. With his 30.9% strikeout percentage on the road and 30.3% strikeout percentage the second time through the order, I like Keller to go over this total for the 7th straight game.