26.07.2023

Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres Game Preview and Pick

Each day we grow closer to the deadline, the anticipation of what the Padres will do grows. Even with their win last night, San Diego is still 5-5 over their last ten games, but with a win tonight, they will have won their third straight series. The team has yet to truly kick it into gear, but they need to scratch across as many wins as they can until they do, so we’ll preview the game before going over my play for the first five innings.

Game Preview

It took some time for them to pull away last night, but ultimately the Padres were able to come away with a 5-1 win to even the series. After taking a 2-1 lead in the second inning, it would not be until the seventh inning before the Padres were able to cross home plate again with Juan Soto leaving the yard. A two-run home run in the 8th by Gary Sanchez would solidify the win for San Diego and help hide the fact that the team left 19 runners on base.

While the Padres' offense was stranding guys on base until the late innings, starter Blake Snell and the San Diego bullpen were able to hold the Pirates to just three hits in the game. With the series on the line tonight, veteran right-hander Seth Lugo will take the ball for his 15th start of the year. Lugo is fresh off his fourth win of the season after working six innings with two earned runs his last time out.

Lugo will match up with a Pirates lineup that disappeared last night after an offensive outburst the night before. In the opening game of this series, the Pirates went off for eight runs on 13 hits, and yet last night, they proceeded to score one run on a Henry Davis RBI double in the second and never found home plate again.

Getting the start for Pittsburgh tonight will be right-hander Johan Oviedo, who has already racked up 20 starts this season. Oviedo took the loss his last time out, which gave him three starts over his last five in which he’s allowed five or more earned runs. After allowing five earned runs in four innings during his last outing, the right-hander is now sporting a 4.77 ERA across his 111.3 innings of work.

Pick for the Game

For the first five innings, the Padres' run line of (-.5) is currently priced at (-130), and I’ll be backing them for my play. The Pirates enter tonight 3-7 on the F5 run-line over their past ten games, and they are throwing a starter that matches up extremely well for the Padres offense.

Over the past month, the Padres offense ranks 6th in OPS and wOBA and 3rd in wRC+ against right-handed pitching at home. Not only are they facing a starter in the 27th percentile in xERA/xwOBA, but Oviedo also has a 4.82 FIP on the road this season to go along with a batting average against of .261. Oviedo has also come out of the gate slow this season, sporting a FIP of 5.42 the first time through the lineup.

On the other side, Seth Lugo has a 3.35 FIP at home this season, and he’s been able to hold teams at bay early in games, allowing a batting average against of .216 the first time through the order. It also helps the Pirates' lineup is hitting .229 against right-handed pitching on the road over the past month.