22.06.2023

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins Game Preview and Prop Pick

Even with their two straight losses to the Blue Jays, the Miami Marlins are 6-4 over their last ten games and will now play host to a Pirates team that is 1-9 in that same span. We’ll preview the game before going over which prop market I’ll be targeting tonight.

Game Preview

At one point, not too long ago, the Pirates sat in first place in the NL Central and seemed to have a lot of promise. Unfortunately for Pirates fans, that is no longer the case, as they have lost nine straight games to divisional teams, which has led to them being swept by the Cubs twice in that span. Yesterday's 8-3 loss secured their ninth straight loss, as they could only muster up two hits for the entire game.

With the team desperately needing to find the win column, they will hand the ball to their ace, Mitch Keller. The right-hander has continued to rack up strikeouts at an impressive pace, but just as the team has been struggling lately, so has he. In Keller’s last five starts, he has allowed four or more earned runs in four of them, bringing his ERA to 3.62 in 92 innings of work.

Keller will face a Marlins lineup tonight that could not carry the momentum from their 11-0 win on Monday, as they dropped the series' final two games and only managed to score a combined three runs in those games. In last night’s 6-3 loss, the Marlins picked up nine hits, but outside of Garrett Cooper driving in two runs and Garrett Hampson driving in one, the Marlins were unable to climb back from an early 5-0 deficit.

Taking the mound for Miami tonight will be left-hander Braxton Garrett, who has become an impressive piece of the Marlins' rotation. Garrett has allowed two or fewer runs in seven of his last ten starts, giving him a 3.88 ERA in 69.7 innings. The lefty has also been a strike-out machine recently and has racked up 17 punchouts in his last 12 ⅓ innings.

Prop Pick

As a sixth-grade English teacher would say that last paragraph is a good example of foreshadowing because, for my prop play in this one, I’ll be targeting Braxton Garrett to go over 5.5 strikeouts tonight, which is priced at (-114). The Marlins lefty is averaging 6.1 punchouts per game over his last ten starts and has gone over this total in four straight outings.

With his recent run of high strikeout outings, Garrett is now in the 84th percentile in chase rate and 72nd percentile in whiff rate, which sets up a tough matchup for the struggling Pirates offense. Over the last month, the Pirates have the seventh-highest strikeout percentage on the road at 25.6%. Since Pittsburgh has also lost nine straight, they might be pressing even more at the plate tonight.

In his three starts in June, Garrett has a 36.5% strikeout percentage and a 12.67 K/9. It does not take long for the Marlins starter to get comfortable in games either, as he is sporting a 32.5% strikeout percentage the first time through the order and a 29.4% strikeout percentage the second time through. With how he’s been spinning the ball, I think he can go over his strikeout total for the fifth straight game.