The Blue Jays have had an affinity for low-scoring games recently, with the under going 15-3 over their last 18 games. Regardless of how many runs are scored, winning remains the most important aspect, and Toronto has put a notch in the win column their past two games. Another win tonight would give them a series win over Philadelphia, and we’ll preview the game before going over which prop market I’ll be targeting.
A run didn’t cross home plate until the sixth inning last night in the opening game of this two-game set, with both starting pitchers putting on an impressive performance. Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler worked seven innings and allowed one earned run, while Yusei Kikuchi gave the Blue Jays six innings of one-run ball himself.
The difference in the game came down to the bullpens, as the Blue Jays pen didn’t allow a hit over the last three innings. Meanwhile, Phillies’ bullpen arm Seranthony Dominguez would hit Cavan Biggio with a pitch with the bases loaded, allowing what would be the game-winning run.
With a chance to sweep the quick two-game series, the Blue Jays will have Kevin Gausman on the mound for his 24th start of the year. The right-hander is pitching to a 3.04 ERA and is fresh off a dominant performance against the Guardians, in which he spun seven scoreless innings with six strikeouts and four hits allowed.
Gausman will square off with a Phillies line-up tonight that went from being one of the hottest in baseball to struggling mightily over their past three games. Over their three-game losing streak, Philadelphia has scored just two total runs. In last night’s 2-1 loss, Johan Rojas drove in the team’s only run on an RBI double, but aside from that, the team would finish with four hits.
It will be up to Aaron Nola tonight to get Philadelphia back in the win column as the right-hander takes the mound for the 25th time this season. After allowing a combined ten earned runs in two starts, Nola bounced back in his most recent start against the Nationals by allowing one earned run in five innings, along with six punchouts.
Kevin Gausman’s outs recorded prop is set at 17.5, and I’ll be taking the over, which is priced at (-130) for my play. The right-hander is averaging 18.13 outs per game this season and has gone over tonight’s total in seven of his last ten starts, including his most recent one in which he recorded 21 outs. Not only has Gausman exceeded this number consistently, but he has a great matchup tonight with a struggling Phillies offense on his home mound.
In 297 plate appearances over the past month, the Phillies' offense is hitting .194 and ranks 28th in SLG, OPS, and wRC+ against right-handed pitching on the road. Playing in opposing parks has not been a strong suit for Philadelphia recently, and to make matters even worse, Kevin Gausman has been lights out at the Rogers Centre this season.
Across 69.2 innings at home, Gausman has a .230 batting average against and a 2.34 FIP. The right-hander is also in the 95th percentile in strikeout percentage and 64th percentile in xERA/xwOBA. Gausman has gone over the 17-out mark in eight of his 11 home starts, and I think tonight he is primed to make that in nine of his 12 home starts by the end of the game.
Kevin Gausman Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-130)