17.05.2023

Philadelphia Phillies @ San Francisco Giants Game Preview and Prop Pick

The final game of the three-game series between the Phillies and Giants is set to take place this afternoon as the Phillies look to avoid getting swept and losing their fourth straight game. We’ll preview the game before going over my best prop play for the action.

Game Preview

Heading into this series with the Phillies, the Giants had lost six of their last eight games, but they have put up a combined ten runs over the past two games while getting stellar performances from their bullpen. Last night, San Francisco got a big game from Michael Conforto, who went three for four at the dish with a big two-out RBI to bring his total to 18 on the year.

Getting the ball for the Giants today will be right-hander Ross Stripling, who has made four starts this season while also making some relief appearances. In 29 innings of work between starting and relieving, the right-hander has a 7.14 ERA with 24 strikeouts and nine walks. The last time Stripling pitched was on May 12th, but the last time he got a start was May 7th, when he threw five innings with five earned runs and three strikeouts.

Stripling will face a Phillies lineup that, despite losing three straight, is still at the top of the league in BAbip and has an OPS+ of 105. Philadelphia was able to end yesterday's loss with ten hits but also had ten strikeouts and left 22 runners on base. The only real production at the plate yesterday came from Kyle Schwarber, who hit his tenth home run of the year.

Big righty Taijuan Walker will get the start for the Phillies this afternoon as he is set to make his 8th start of the year. In 34.7 innings of work, Walker has pitched to a 5.97 ERA with 35 strikeouts and 17 walks. Even with an ERA that is getting close to six, the righty has turned in two straight quality starts, going six innings in each and allowing one earned run and three earned runs, respectively.

Prop Pick

Ross Stripling’s out total is currently set at 15.5, and I’ll be taking the under, which is priced at (-145) on DraftKings. Depending on where you are located, you may be able to get a different price, but I’m using this book since it the most accessible. With that said, we are looking at a pitcher in Stripling that has not gone over 15 outs in each of his four starts and will likely hand the ball to Sean Manea right after the fifth inning or some time before it.

The most a starting pitcher has thrown for the Giants this series is 4 ⅔ innings, so manager Gabe Kapler has been more than willing to bring in his long reliever early on. San Francisco has used Stripling in various roles this season, and he has not found success in any of them, as he is in the 8th percentile in barrel percentage, 26th percentile in hard hit percentage, and the bottom 5% of the league in expected WOBA.

With San Francisco having an off day tomorrow, we may see the Giants use the rest of their bullpen along with Manaea, who hasn’t pitched since May 10th, knowing they get a reset tomorrow. I think this is an excellent spot to target this prop with how he has thrown this season and the Giants' pitching plan.