02.05.2023

Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers Game Preview and Pick

The Dodgers continued the momentum of their sweep of their Cardinals in a big way yesterday by putting up 13 runs on the Philadelphia Phillies. Tonight they will look to secure the series victory, and we’ll preview the game before going over which side I’ll be backing in this one.

Game Preview

Coming out of the gate hot may not do the Dodgers' performance yesterday justice, as the dangerous LA lineup scored at least one run for five straight innings while recording a run in seven out of the eight innings they got to hit. The Dodgers knocked Phillies starter Taijuan Walker out of the game after 3 ⅓ innings, as they lit him up for eight runs. In total, LA finished the game with 15 hits, seven of which were extra-base hits.

The Dodgers lineup made life easy on their pitching staff in game one, and tonight Julio Urías will be looking for the same type of run support. In six starts this season, Urías has thrown 32.7 innings with a 4.41 ERA and 35 strikeouts, along with seven walks. The lefty got off to a strong start to the season, recording a win in his first three starts, but his next three starts have not warranted the same results.

Urías will take on a Phillies lineup that, despite getting blown out yesterday, still recorded nine hits in the game and still lead the league in BAbip. Philadelphia has lost two straight games heading into tonight, but their lineup remains dangerous, especially since Bryce Harper will be making his season debut tonight as the designated hitter. Harper will join a lineup that ranks 7th in OPS+ and 8th in slugging percentage entering tonight.

Taking the ball for the Phillies tonight will be lefty Matt Strahm to make his sixth start of the year. Strahm has been a pleasant surprise for Phillies fans this season, as he has thrown 23.3 innings with a 2.31 ERA and 32 strikeouts. In his most recent outing, the lefty went 5 ⅓ innings while striking out five and allowing just two hits while picking up his second win.

Pick for the Game

The Philadelphia Phillies are currently listed at (+140) on the moneyline, and I’ll be backing them for my play in this one. Yesterday was not an ideal start to the series, but Philadelphia is 5-0 in their last five games following a game where they allowed five or more runs to be scored.

Los Angeles is currently hitting .174 against lefties this season with a .282 OBP, and they will take on a lefty starter in Matt Strahm, that is in the 87th percentile in expected batting average. Strahm is also in the 95th percentile in strikeout percentage, 77th percentile in whiff percentage, and in the top 10% of the league in WOBA. These numbers don’t bode well for a Dodgers team that is 1-6 in their last seven games against lefty starters.

On the other hand, the Phillies lineup is hitting .270 against lefties this season and .271 when on the road. Urías has put up strong numbers this season, but his most thrown pitch, which is his four-seam fastball he throws 46.3% of the time, has warranted a .339 batting average and .519 xSLG against it. I think the Phillies come out aggressive tonight, especially with the jolt they’ll have with Harper back in the lineup.