25.09.2023

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Game Preview and Prop Picks

Last week's Monday Night Football doubleheader left a lot to be desired, but that should be much different tonight with two solid games on the schedule. One of those games will feature a pair of 2-0 teams, with the Philadelphia Eagles in Tampa Bay to take on Baker Mayfield and the Bucs. We’ll preview the game before going over my two prop picks for the action.

Game Preview

The post Tom Brady era has gotten off to a good start in Tampa Bay, thanks to the revitalization of Baker Mayfield. Through two games, the former number-one pick has thrown for 490 yards and three touchdowns while also avoiding any interceptions. Under new offensive coordinator Dave Canales, the Buccaneers offense looks to be in a nice rhythm, as they are coming off a 27-17 win over the Bears in which they had an offensive EPA of 14.15.

In that win over Chicago, the Mayfield to Mike Evans connection looked strong, with the veteran wideout finishing the day with six catches for 171 yards and a touchdown. However, one of the biggest stories about their week two win was an improved running game. After ending their week one with just 73 rush yards on 33 attempts, the Bucs' offense ran for 120 yards on 34 attempts, and lead back Rachaad White was able to pick up 73 yards himself, giving the Bucs a (1.44) EPA on rush plays.

Tampa Bay also had a (7.04) EPA on defense last weekend, and they’ll need to play up to that level tonight against an Eagles offense that scored 34 points last week against the Vikings. After a slow start offensively in week one, Jalen Hurts and the Eagles had 430 yards of offense in week two, with running back D’Andre Swift picking up 175 of those yards on the ground.

Defensively, through two games, the Eagles finished last week with a negative EPA on pass plays and so far rank 30th in passing yards allowed (652) and passing touchdowns allowed (7). On the flip side, Philadelphia has been one of the best-run defenses in the league so far, allowing an average of just 52 rush yards per game.

Prop Pick #1: D’Andre Swift Over 32.5 Rushing Yards (-120/BetMGM)

The newly acquired D’Andre Swift had just one rushing attempt in week one, but thanks to some injuries at the position, he had 28 attempts last week against Minnesota. While Kenneth Gainwell is set to rejoin the lineup, Boston Scott is still out, and Swift is expected to see the bulk in carries even if he splits some time with Gainwell. Swift’s 175-yard performance certainly earned him that opportunity, and while he may not reach that same number, he should still be able to get at least 40 yards on the ground.

According to Fantasy Pros, Swift ranks 15th in the league in yards per contact per attempt and 11th in elusive rating. Those numbers should lead to some success against a Buccaneers defense that has not seen a lot of rushing attempts against them (only 33 this season) and has allowed the 5th highest yards per contact per attempt, according to Fantasy Pros.

Philadelphia is 1st in the league in rush play percentage, and they certainly have an excellent offensive line to run behind. With Swift averaging 6.1 rushing yards per attempt, I think we could see him take control of the runningback position tonight, which means this is one of the lowest totals we could see him have.

Prop Pick #2: Mike Evans Over 4.5 Receptions (+120/DraftKings)

There is no denying Baker Mayfield has enjoyed having the big body of Mike Evans lined up on the outside, as Evans already has 18 targets in two weeks. According to Fantasy Pros, Evans has a 25% target share and 48.7% yard share so far, so his production level should not dip off tonight.

Evans is lining up against a Philadelphia pass defense that has allowed 66 completions on 98 attempts up to this point, and the two corners that will be on Evans tonight both have allowed 91.3 passer ratings or higher this season. With Mayfield completing 69.12% of his passes through two weeks, I think Evans is in line to pull in at least six catches for the third straight week.