12.12.2022

Patriots @ Cardinals Game Preview and Prop Pick

Week 14 will wrap up tonight in Arizona, with the struggling Cardinals hosting the New England Patriots. We’ll preview the game and dive into my favorite prop play of the night.

Game Preview

The Arizona Cardinals have lost two straight, bringing their record to 4-8. Trouble in paradise doesn’t do the Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury relationship justice anymore. After Murray’s last press conference, the situation and season have turned into a full-blown nightmare. Whenever the franchise quarterback or head coach opens their mouth, they seem to be taking subtle digs at the other person.

As for the on-the-field play, the Cardinals have looked lost on both sides of the ball. The offense is averaging just 22 points per game, which is 17th in the NFL, and they have lacked any kind of explosiveness, averaging just 4.9 yards per play, ranked 29th.

It won’t get any easier for the Cardinals' offense tonight against this stellar Patriots defense. New England is ranked sixth in the league in average points and yards allowed per game and is forcing an average of 1.6 turnovers per game. The biggest problem the Patriots' defense has had is stopping mobile quarterbacks, so we’ll see if Murray can take advantage tonight or if Belichick can dial up enough pressure to keep him contained.

As for the Cardinals' defense, they are allowing the most points per game to be scored this season at 26.8 a game, and they allow a third down conversion rate of 45%, so they have truly struggled to get off the field this season. New England could only score 10 points last weekend in their loss to Buffalo, so this would be a perfect game for them to get any momentum in the passing game.

Arizona allows the second-highest completion percentage in the league, so despite Jakobi Meyers being injured, Mac Jones should still be able to find some success through the air.

Prop Pick for the Game

My favorite player prop pick of the game is Rhamondre Stevenson Over 33.5 receiving yards at (-125). New England will be without leading receiver Jakobi Meyers and their other primary running back, Damien Harris, so I’m expecting the Patriots to rely heavily on Stevenson in both the running and passing game.

Stevenson has had six or more catches in five out of his last six games, and in those six games, he has gone over his receiving yards prop in four of them. Despite being a running back, Mac Jones relies on Stevenson heavily in the passing game, as Stevenson is tied for the most targets on the team and has the third most receiving yards as well.

The Cardinals' defense is 30th in the NFL in DVOA on passes to running backs and allows 6.7 yards per pass, which is 17th in the league. Arizona also allows the most yards after the catch in the NFL, with 1860 yards which is 181 yards more than the team that allows the second most. I expect Stevenson to be the focal point of the Patriots' offense tonight and take full advantage of the lackluster Cardinals' defense.