There are two games left in the NBA regular season, and a lot of teams, like the Utah Jazz, are in the position just to let the young players on their roster get experience. Tonight the Jazz will play host to the Oklahoma City Thunder, and we’ll preview the game before going over my two best prop plays in this one.
The OKC Thunder enter tonight still with a chance to make the play-in tournament as they currently sit with a 47% chance, and they control their own destiny. The team behind them, the Mavericks, has a 53% chance of making it, but they don’t have the luxury of controlling their destiny. OKC has made the path difficult for themselves by entering tonight on a three-game losing streak and with the 22nd ranked NET rating over the past ten games.
OKC is currently 24th in defensive efficiency rating over the past ten games, and a big reason for that is their last three losses. In that span, the Thunder have allowed 121 points or more, and in their most recent game, they allowed 136 points to a Warriors team without Klay Thompson. Golden State ended the game with 47 made field goals, which has the Thunder ranked 24th in opponent field goals made per game over the last ten games.
The good news for OKC is they will take on a Utah Jazz team tonight that is 3-7 over their past ten games and ranks 23rd in NET rating in that span. Utah will also enter tonight on a losing streak and recently lost in overtime to the Los Angeles Lakers. The inconsistencies for Utah have come on both sides of the floor, ranking 22nd in offensive rating and 21st in defensive.
It’s hard to judge Utah for these numbers when five of their most important players are dealing with injuries. All five players, including Lauri Markkanen, who leads the team in scoring, will miss tonight’s game, which puts the bulk of the scoring duties on Talen Horton-Tucker, Kelly Olynyk, and Ochai Agbaji.
For my two prop plays in this one, I’ll be targeting rookie Ochai Agbaji for both of them. The first prop will be for Agbaji to go over his points total, currently set at 16.5 and priced at (-112). The second prop plays into his scoring prop as I’ll be taking him to go over 2.5 three-pointers made at (-105). Agbaji has gone over his scoring total the past two games and is fresh off a 22-point performance over the Lakers.
Agabji has a much more favorable matchup tonight in terms of defense, as he’ll take on a Thunder team that ranks 24th in opponent field goal percentage and 25th in three-point percentage over the recent ten-game stretch. Opponents are averaging 14 made threes per game against OKC, which bodes well for Agbaji, who is shooting 41.8% from deep on an average of 6.7 attempts per game over the last ten.
In the absence of a bulk of the team, the rookie has seen his usage increase heavily, and tonight should be no different. The Thunder have struggled mightily on the defensive end recently, and Agbaji is in a position where he can just go out and score without worrying about much else.
Ochai Agbaji Over 16.5 Points (-112)
Ochai Agbaji Over 2.5 Threes (-105)