mlb
03.08.2023

Oakland A's @ Los Angeles Dodgers Game Preview and Pick

After losing two straight series, the Los Angeles Dodgers have the chance to secure a series sweep tonight over the A’s with a win. We’ll preview tonight’s game before going over which side I’ll be backing on the run-line.

Game Preview

The term “bounce-back spot” is commonly used in sports, and for the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Oakland A’s have been their bounce-back series. Before the series with Oakland, the Dodgers had been held to three or fewer runs in four of their previous six games, but in the two games they’ve played against the A’s, they’ve scored a total of 17 runs. In last night’s 10-1 win, the Dodgers recorded 13 hits, including four home runs and five doubles.

It was a full team affair last night, with nine players recording an RBI, including Amed Rosario, who left the yard for the first time in a Dodgers uniform. With a chance to secure the sweep tonight, LA will have left-hander Julio Urias on the mound for his 16th start of the season. Urias took a no-decision in his most recent outing, allowing three earned runs over six innings of work.

After facing two formidable lineups out of the AL East over his last two starts, Urias will now get to face an A’s lineup that has scored four total runs in this series. Oakland left 21 runners on base in last night’s loss, with their only source of offense coming from Shea Langaliers, who hit a solo home run in the third inning. Langaliers was one of only two A’s players to record more than one total base in the game.

On the mound, the A’s will start their third straight lefty, with JP Sears getting the ball. For a season that has been rough both on the mound, the A’s have arguably gotten their most consistent pitching from Sears, who enters tonight with a 4.09 ERA and 106 strikeouts in 116.7 innings of work. The lefty is also coming off his second win of the season, in which he worked five innings of one-run baseball in Colorado.

Pick for the Game

The Los Angeles Dodgers run-line of (-1.5) is currently priced at (-135), and I’ll be backing them for my play. We’ve seen all series what the Dodgers can do to left-handed pitching at home, and on the mound, LA will roll out a starter that is an entirely different pitcher when at his home ballpark.

In 43.2 home innings this season for Urias, he has a .203 batting average against, a 26.8% strikeout percentage, and an xFIP of 3.25. His dominance at home does not bode well for an A’s lineup that ranks 20th in wRC+, wOBA, and OPS against left-handed pitching on the road over the last month.

As for the Dodgers' offense, they rank 2nd in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against left-handed pitching at home over the last month. With JP Sears sporting a 5.02 xFIP on the road and being in the 29th percentile in xERA/xwOBA, it could be another long night for the Oakland pitching staff.

Recap

  • Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)(-135)

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