21.04.2023

New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants Game Preview and Prop Pick

The New York Mets took game one of this series, making it the fifth straight opening game of a series they’ve won. New York and San Francisco will play game two of the series tonight at 10:15 PM EST, and we’ll preview the game before going over my best prop play for the action.

Game Preview

Last night’s 9-4 victory brought the Mets' record over the past ten games to 8-2. Rookie pitcher Kodai Senga picked up his third win of the year as he went five innings and allowed four earned runs on five hits and four strikeouts. It was the Mets' bullpen and offense, however, that won them the game for the second straight day. New York’s bullpen threw four scoreless innings while allowing just two hits, while the offense hit three home runs, including Pete Alonso’s ninth of the year.

On the mound tonight for New York will be Joey Lucchesi, who will be making his first appearance in the MLB since 2021 due to injury. The lefty made three starts in Triple-A before getting the call to replace an injured Carlos Carrasco in the rotation. In 2021 with the Mets, the lefty made eight starts and threw 38.3 innings to a 4.46 ERA before getting hurt.

Lucchesi will face a team he used to pitch against often when he was with the Padres in the San Francisco Giants. With the loss last night, the Giants fell to 6-12 on the season, and even with their lineup only striking out five times and scoring four runs, they could not overcome the nine combined runs allowed by Sean Manaea and Tristan Beck.

The Giants will call upon veteran right-hander Anthony DeScalfani to make his fourth start of the year. DeScalfani has thrown 19 innings with a 1.42 ERA so far this season. In those 19 innings, the righty has yet to record a walk but has racked up 16 strikeouts while only allowing one home run.

Prop Pick

For my prop play in this one, I’ll be targeting Francisco Lindor to go over his total bases prop of 1.5, currently priced at (+110). Lindor has picked up at least one hit in nine of his last ten games, and in that ten-game span is averaging 2.4 total bases per game. The reason for targeting him, though, goes past recent success and is more based on the pitching matchup he will face tonight.

In 15 career plate appearances against DeScalfani, the Mets switch hitter has recorded eight hits, including four singles, one double, and three home runs. Those numbers would give him a .533 career batting average against the Giants righty. Lindor only has a whiff percentage of 12.5%, the lowest amongst all Mets hitters, and he has an average exit velocity of 93.3 MPH against him.

New York has been playing at an exceptionally high level as of late, and Lindor has consistently been finding his way on base. Even though DeSacalfini is throwing as well as he has been up to this point, he is still in the 15th percentile in barrel percentage and 15th percentile in hard-hit percentage.