23.08.2023

New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves Game Preview and Prop Pick: Target This Pitcher Prop

After a scorching hot night at the plate in game one of this series, the Mets offense returned to Earth last night. With the series tied at one apiece and the rubber match set for tonight, this will be the last time these two NL East teams will match up with each other this season. We’ll preview the series finale before going over which pitcher prop market I’ll be targeting for my play.

Game Preview

Despite closing with a total of 11, yesterday’s game between the Mets and Braves ended with just five runs. Atlanta’s impressive offense would finish the game with nine hits, but not only did those nine hits come from just four players, but they would finish the game with 17 runners left on base. Despite all the squandered opportunities, Atlanta still came away with a 3-2 win thanks to a solo home run from Marcell Ozuna and a two-run shot by Eddie Rosario.

With a win tonight, the Braves can secure their fourth straight series win, and the man leading the charge on the mound will be veteran Charlie Morton. The right-hander has turned in back-to-back scoreless outings, one of which came against this same Mets lineup. Morton worked five innings against the Mets on August 11th and allowed three hits, and he followed that up with a six-inning and ten-strikeout gem against the Yankees.

Morton faces a Mets lineup that went from having 14 hits in game one of this series to just five last night. Two of those five hits went for extra bases in the 6th inning, as Francisco Lindor picked up a double, and Daniel Vogelbach drove him in with a two-run home run.

Even with last night’s loss, the Mets are 7-3 over their last ten games and have the chance to take a series from Atlanta for the first time this season. Getting the ball for them tonight will be lefty Jose Quintana, who is set to make his 7th start of the year. In his six starts this season, Quintana has been strong for New York, pitching to a 3.03 ERA in 35.7 innings. In his last start against Atlanta, the lefty allowed just one earned run over six innings.

Prop Pick

Jose Quintana’s outs-recorded prop is currently set at 15.5, and I’ll be taking the over, which is priced at (+104). The lefty has gone over this total in five of his six starts this season, and the only start he didn’t exceed this total was his first outing back from injury.

He’s only made six starts, but Quintana is better than the league average in both hard-hit and barrel percentages. In his most recent outing against the Braves, in which 17 balls were put into play, 13 of them were not hit hard. It also helps that over the last month, the Braves offense is hitting .230 against left-handed pitching at home.

Quintana has consistently reached the sixth inning this season by averaging 15.5 pitches per inning and 92.2 pitches per outing. Manager Buck Showalter also seems willing to leave the veteran out there since he allowed him to throw 104 pitches when he last faced the Braves. The left-hander has allowed just one home run this season, so with his ability to avoid the long ball and confidence from his skipper, I think he can make his way into the 6th inning again tonight.