05.07.2023

New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks Game Preview and Prop Pick

When a season is going as poorly as the Mets' season, stringing together three wins in a row can feel massive. With their win yesterday over the Diamondbacks, the Mets were able to open their road trip on a high note as they look to build momentum heading into the All-Star break. We’ll preview game two of their series with Arizona before going over which prop market I’ll be targeting.

Game Preview

A total of six home runs were hit in yesterday’s 8-5 win for the Mets, with both teams leaving the yard three times apiece. Despite allowing three home runs, Max Scherzer was able to battle for six innings to set himself up for the win. Each time the Diamondbacks took the lead or tied the game, New York’s offense was able to help their pitching staff out, as Starling Marte, Brandon Nimmo, and Francisco Alvarez all hit go-ahead home runs throughout the game.

The Mets bullpen made things interesting at the end of the game by walking in a run with bases loaded, but David Robertson was able to get the final out to avoid disaster. Getting the ball tonight for New York will be rookie right-hander Kodai Senga, who has made 15 starts this season. In his 81.7 innings of work, the righty has pitched to a 3.53 ERA with 101 punchouts and 46 walks.

Senga will face a Diamondbacks lineup that last night recorded the same amount of hits as the Mets but still struck out 12 times and left 13 runners on base. Even with home runs from Corbin Carrol, Christian Walker, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr., the D-Backs offense could not keep pace with the number of runs Zach Davies and their bullpen were letting up.

With a chance to even the series tonight, the Diamondbacks will have young left-hander Tommy Henry on the mound. The University of Michigan product is fresh off his second straight win, throwing 5.2 innings against the Angels while allowing just one earned run and striking out eight.

Prop Pick

While home runs were the story of yesterday’s game, there was also a fair share of punchouts. That said, I’ll be targeting Kodai Senga to go over his strikeout total of 5.5, which is priced at (+100). The Mets right-hander is averaging 6.73 strikeouts per game this season and 7.22 over his past ten starts, which matches up well with a Diamondbacks lineup that, despite being dangerous, has also been strikeout prone as of late.

Arizona has the 8th-highest strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching at home over the last month at 24%. In the Diamondbacks' last nine games facing a right-handed starter at home, five of those starters registered six or more punchouts. Now they face a starter in Senga who is in the 80th percentile in strikeout percentage and 74th percentile in whiff percentage.

Senga features an elite pitch in his forkball which has warranted a whiff percentage of 58.8%. The right-hander’s forkball is a challenging pitch to face for the first time, and since none of the Diamondbacks have seen it before in person, Senga could get a few extra swings and misses on it. Additionally, Senga has maintained his stuff throughout games, as he has a 28.9% strikeout percentage the first time through the order and a 31.8% strikeout percentage the third time through.