With a win tonight, the New York Mets can secure a sweep over the Diamondbacks and extend their winning streak to five games. We’ll preview the final game of the series before going over why I’ll be targeting a run in the first innings bet for my play in this one.
The second game of this series was the polar opposite of the first one, as the two teams went from scoring a combined 13 runs in game one to scoring a total of three last night. In what was a pitcher’s duel from the first pitch, Arizona got six scoreless innings from starter Tommy Henry, but their bullpen faltered in the 9th. Young slugger Francisco Alvarez was able to tie the game with a solo home run off Andrew Chafin, while Mark Cahna followed that up with an RBI triple to give the Mets the lead.
All it took was six hits and those two runs for the Mets to come away with a 2-1 victory. New York was in the position to make a late rally because of the phenomenal start they got from Kodai Senga, who gave them eight innings with 12 strikeouts and one earned run. Tonight they will hand the ball to Carlos Carrasco for his 12th start of the year. The veteran has struggled in his 53 innings of work, pitching to a 5.94 ERA with 39 strikeouts and 26 walks.
Carrasco will face a Diamondbacks lineup tonight that has to be thrilled not to be facing Senga’s ghost-fork pitch tonight. After registering eight hits in game one of the series, the D-Backs picked up four last night, with the biggest one being a Christian Walker solo home run in the 7th which was his second of the series.
On the mound tonight, Arizona will send another young arm to the mound in Ryne Nelson. The right-hander is coming off two straight impressive outings in which he’s thrown a combined 14.1 innings with two earned runs and 12 punchouts. Those outings have brought Nelson’s ERA down to 4.67 in 90.7 innings of work.
The YRFI in this game is currently priced at (-130) on FanDuel, and I’ll be targeting that as my play. Not only is Arizona the most profitable YRFI team in the league this season, but both starters have struggled with getting out of the first inning unscathed. Over the Diamondbacks' last ten games, they are 7-3 to the YRFI, and their matchup with Carrasco is perfect for them to keep up with that impressive record.
Carrasco has an 8.18 ERA in the first inning this season to go along with a 4.91 ERA on the road. The Mets starter is also in the 7th percentile in expected batting average and 5th percentile in expected slugging percentage, so he poses as a solid matchup for a D-Backs lineup that has a .840 OPS in the first innings and will likely come out aggressive tonight to avoid getting swept.
As for Ryne Nelson, he has a 3.71 first-inning ERA to go along with a 7.09 home ERA. Additionally, opponents have hit .308 off Nelson the first time through the order, which has led to him having an xFIP of 4.83. Even though the Mets' average runs scored in the first innings is nowhere near Arizona’s, they still have a good chance to put runs on the board early.
Yes Run First Inning (-130)