21.09.2023

New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers Game Preview and Prop Pick

It took a miraculous second-half comeback for the Giants to avoid a disastrous loss to the Arizona Cardinals in week two. The celebration after the game could not last too long, however, since the Giants are now set to play arguably the best team in the NFC, the 49ers, on short rest and without running back Saquon Barkley. We’ll preview the game before going over which prop market I’ll be targeting.

Game Preview

While their defense may have been challenged a bit more by the Rams in week two, the 49ers still came away with a 30-23 win. The crazy part about that sentence is while Matt Stafford and Puka Nacua still challenged them, the 49ers defense still came up with two interceptions and held LA to just 89 rushing yards for the game.

Brock Purdy and the 49ers offense have now opened the season with two straight 30-point performances, and after scoring two of their three touchdowns through the air in week one, San Francisco kept it all on the ground in week two. On 28 rushing attempts, the 49ers put up 159 rushing yards and three touchdowns, giving them an EPA in the running game of 4.22.

Entering tonight with the second-best average on yards per play at 6.3, San Francisco will line up against a Giants defense that was embarrassed in week one and came out sloppy again in week two. Through two weeks, the Giants allow an average of 136.5 rushing yards per game, which is 26th in the league. Despite holding the Cardinals to eight second-half points, New York still finished the game with a defensive EPA of (-15.48).

New York’s defense has not lived up to the hype surrounding them prior to the preseason, and up until the third quarter on Sunday, their offense hadn’t either. After starting the season with six straight scoreless quarters, Daniel Jones kicked it into high drive in the second half in Arizona.

Jones led five second-half scoring drives that included a rushing touchdown and a game-tying passing touchdown with under five minutes left in the 4th. It could be difficult for New York to maintain that success tonight, though, without both Saquon Barkley and left tackle Andrew Thomas.

Prop Pick

Deebo Samuel’s receptions prop is currently set at 4.5, and I’ll be taking the over at (-120) for my play. One of the bigger storylines in week two was Brandon Aiyuk’s shoulder injury, which caused him to play 28 fewer snaps in week two than in week one. While there is still a chance he plays tonight, Aiyuk is listed as questionable after only going through one limited practice this week, so all of this sets up the potential for Samuel to get even more targets.

Samuel has gone over his total tonight in each of the first two weeks, pulling in five catches on seven targets in week one and six catches on nine targets last weekend. This week, he’ll be lining up against a Giants defense that had an (-11.72) EPA on pass plays, and out of the five players targeted at least four times, four of them allowed a completion percentage of 60% or higher.

With how the 49ers' offense has played this season, they could put up another crooked number against the Giants' defense, so even if Aiyuk plays, they might be able to keep him off the field for longer stretches of time without it affecting the offense. Overall, the targets should be there for Samuel to go over this total for the third straight week.