05.10.2023

New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins Game Preview and Pick

Not only do the Giants enter this weekend on short rest, but they have spent another week being called out for their ineptitude and poor decision-making. To make matters worse, New York will be on the road this weekend to take on a high-powered Dolphins offense coming off their first loss of the season.

Game Preview

In fairness to the Dolphins, I can’t imagine it’s easy to follow up a 70-point performance, and that certainly seemed to be the case this past weekend in their 48-20 loss to the Bills. Miami entered the 2nd quarter down 14-7 and in a good spot, but they could not keep pace with Stefon Diggs and the Bills offense. It was the first game all season Miami didn’t finish with a positive offensive EPA, as their best performance came from De’Von Achane, who rushed for 101 yards and two touchdowns.

Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins' offense certainly didn't look like their usual selves, especially in the second half, but it didn’t help Josh Allen was picking apart their defense. The Dolphins' defense finished the day with a (-27.56) EPA, which is almost entirely due to their pass defense. On the season, the Dolphins are now 25th in both passing yards and passing touchdowns allowed.

The bright spot in all of this is they will go from defending the exciting Bills offense to a Giants team that failed to score a touchdown for the second time this season on Monday night. After their 24-3 loss to the Seahawks, the Giants are now 32nd in average points per game (11.5) and 31st in average yards per game (252). There’s no denying it’s tough to play without Saquon Barkley, but even if he was in there, the Giants' offensive line would still be struggling.

New York is 32nd in sack percentage on offense, which makes Daniel Jones’ job even harder. At the same time, Jones has to play better for the Giants to turn it around. With 632 passing yards and two touchdowns, New York ranks 30th in those two categories and won’t be able to keep pace with high-powered offenses like the Dolphins.

Pick for the Game

Miami is listed as (-11) point favorites in this matchup, but I’ll be taking their 1H spread of (-6.5) for my play in this one. No team has scored more first-half points than the Dolphins this season, with an average of 21.5, while no team has scored fewer 1H points than the Giants, with an average of 2.3.

There is no doubt the Dolphins are chomping at the bit to get back on the field and into the win column after last weekend, and they are playing a Giants defense they should be able to beat on the ground and through the air. New York allows an average of 133.8 rushing yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry, setting up an ideal matchup for Achane and Mostert out of the backfield.

Miami is 1st in the league in passing yards and rushing yards per game, so with the Giants ranked 31st in sack percentage, the Dolphins should be able to move the ball downfield quickly on the ground and through the air. Since the Giants have started slower on offense than any other team in the league and still have injury concerns on the offensive line, I don’t think they keep pace with Miami from kickoff.